Probabilistic Bid Allocation

2023-24 Season

Bid Distribution    Step by Step Allocation    Team Statistics    FAQ

Bid Allocation

Bids Region Total Contributing Teams
2 Atlantic Coast 2.02 North Carolina 100.00%,   North Carolina State 99.80%,   North Carolina-Wilmington 2.40%,   South Carolina 0.10%,  
1 Great Lakes 0 Michigan State 0.30%,   Michigan 0.10%,  
1 Metro East 0
4 New England 3.97 Vermont 100.00%,   Brown 100.00%,   Massachusetts 100.00%,   Northeastern 42.00%,   Tufts 39.50%,   McGill 15.90%,  
2 North Central 2 Carleton College 100.00%,   Minnesota 99.70%,  
3 Northwest 3.05 Oregon 100.00%,   Brigham Young 85.10%,   Oregon State 60.50%,   Washington 31.40%,   British Columbia 17.80%,   Utah State 10.50%,  
1 Ohio Valley 1.97 Pittsburgh 100.00%,   Penn State 96.60%,  
2 South Central 2.69 Colorado 100.00%,   Texas 98.50%,   Washington University 69.60%,   Texas A&M 0.70%,  
2 Southeast 2.07 Georgia 100.00%,   Alabama-Huntsville 99.90%,   Georgia Tech 6.90%,  
2 Southwest 2.23 Cal Poly-SLO 100.00%,   California 98.10%,   UCLA 24.60%,  

Allocation Breakdown

Region AC GL ME NE NC NW OV SC SE SW
Initial 2.023 0.004 0.000 3.974 1.997 3.053 1.966 2.688 2.068 2.227
Autos (all @ 1) 1.023 -0.996 -1.000 2.974 0.997 2.053 0.966 1.688 1.068 1.227
New England (@ 2) 1.023 -0.996 -1.000 1.974 0.997 2.053 0.966 1.688 1.068 1.227
Northwest (@ 2) 1.023 -0.996 -1.000 1.974 0.997 1.053 0.966 1.688 1.068 1.227
New England (@ 3) 1.023 -0.996 -1.000 0.974 0.997 1.053 0.966 1.688 1.068 1.227
South Central (@ 2) 1.023 -0.996 -1.000 0.974 0.997 1.053 0.966 0.688 1.068 1.227
Southwest (@ 2) 1.023 -0.996 -1.000 0.974 0.997 1.053 0.966 0.688 1.068 0.227
Southeast (@ 2) 1.023 -0.996 -1.000 0.974 0.997 1.053 0.966 0.688 0.068 0.227
Northwest (@ 3) 1.023 -0.996 -1.000 0.974 0.997 0.053 0.966 0.688 0.068 0.227
Atlantic Coast (@ 2) 0.023 -0.996 -1.000 0.974 0.997 0.053 0.966 0.688 0.068 0.227
North Central (@ 2) 0.023 -0.996 -1.000 0.974 -0.003 0.053 0.966 0.688 0.068 0.227
New England (@ 4) 0.023 -0.996 -1.000 -0.026 -0.003 0.053 0.966 0.688 0.068 0.227
Total 2 1 1 4 2 3 1 2 2 2

Teams Ranked By Bid Fraction

Rank Team Bid Frac Rating Uncertainty High/Low Sim Record
1 North Carolina 1 2288.56 47.23 1/6 24-2
2 Georgia 1 2272.81 49.08 1/7 20-2
3 Colorado 1 2243.12 53.01 1/7 15-5
4 Massachusetts 1 2234.96 53.12 1/7 19-3
5 Cal Poly-SLO 1 2174.71 46.48 1/9 25-4
6 Oregon 1 2109.26 42.87 2/12 25-4
7 Pittsburgh 1 2093.14 54.15 2/14 14-6
8 Vermont 1 2038.6 56 4/19 12-8
9 Brown 1 2025.07 40.74 5/17 14-8
10 Carleton College 1 2010.34 42.72 5/19 18-10
11 Alabama-Huntsville 0.999 1993.67 48.01 6/23 15-6
12 North Carolina State 0.998 1946.6 41.04 7/25 18-9
13 Minnesota 0.997 2002.24 62.45 4/22 13-9
14 Texas 0.985 1936.64 51.25 7/24 13-6
15 California 0.981 1924.22 39.15 8/24 21-9
16 Penn State 0.966 1921.23 39.85 8/24 19-9
17 Brigham Young 0.851 1875.44 35.53 11/26 16-11
18 Washington University 0.696 1865.17 48.04 8/31 16-4
19 Oregon State 0.605 1869.3 112 3/52 15-8
20 Northeastern 0.42 1830.32 48.57 11/33 11-9
21 Tufts 0.395 1828.7 61.64 8/35 9-12
22 Washington 0.314 1819 46.26 10/30 14-10
23 UCLA 0.246 1808.44 47.17 13/34 12-16
24 British Columbia 0.178 1800.53 41.37 15/31 14-8
25 McGill 0.159 1774.26 67 13/42 11-2
26 Utah State 0.105 1769.41 57.44 12/40 8-10
27 Georgia Tech 0.069 1740.14 73.5 12/48 9-6
28 North Carolina-Wilmington 0.024 1734.5 49.91 16/42 15-12
29 Texas A&M 0.007 1590.94 109.83 12/108 11-8
30 Michigan State 0.003 1465.76 135.35 18/167 9-2
31 South Carolina 0.001 1683.91 43.04 20/43 18-9
32 Michigan 0.001 1566.42 89.28 18/99 9-10
33 Utah 0 1676.99 48.17 23/50 13-13
34 Middlebury 0 1657.12 67.91 16/55 7-2
35 Wisconsin 0 1645.5 62.2 21/60 8-11
36 Ohio State 0 1641.87 42.87 25/49 10-11
37 California-Santa Cruz 0 1637.21 41.14 23/47 12-15
38 North Carolina-Charlotte 0 1618.26 47.34 24/54 13-14
39 Duke 0 1590.76 46.59 25/61 14-7
40 Victoria 0 1585.73 58.07 25/73 6-16
41 Illinois 0 1579.68 56.31 26/70 14-3
42 Florida 0 1571.02 65.31 26/73 10-9
43 California-San Diego 0 1562.26 52.54 27/68 6-14
44 Tulane 0 1541.68 44.54 28/69 11-6
45 Utah Valley 0 1532.9 83.95 23/93 19-4
46 Williams 0 1524.96 54.83 29/84 17-1
47 Oklahoma Christian 0 1520.17 75.43 26/88 12-6
48 Missouri 0 1514.77 78.32 26/89 12-6
49 St Olaf 0 1503.16 69.17 28/113 22-3
50 Alabama 0 1501.57 71.35 30/85 11-9
51 Franciscan 0 1496.28 91.26 25/124 14-0
52 Virginia Tech 0 1475.52 51.87 34/86 10-10
53 Colorado State 0 1470.56 63.98 31/94 9-11
54 California-Santa Barbara 0 1469.64 68.85 32/97 9-12
55 Emory 0 1447.58 47.45 39/87 11-10
56 Auburn 0 1447.19 66.49 29/101 15-7
57 Maryland 0 1442.96 55.14 37/93 14-6
58 Whitman 0 1436.78 71.87 30/103 13-1
59 Temple 0 1435.02 45.88 37/90 15-6
60 William & Mary 0 1432.01 56.5 40/95 14-13
61 Massachusetts -B 0 1431.78 53.73 38/94 16-3
62 Western Washington 0 1422.23 85.65 32/114 9-11
63 Georgia State 0 1411.82 104.5 24/156 12-0
64 Stanford 0 1404.93 62.32 37/112 12-16
65 Virginia 0 1394.17 58.48 40/118 8-13
66 Chicago 0 1387.02 45.64 45/110 9-9
67 James Madison 0 1376.89 51.92 45/101 11-10
68 Colorado Mines 0 1369.4 115.26 27/161 16-3
69 Case Western Reserve 0 1366.71 68.85 41/120 14-7
70 Penn State-B 0 1366.46 97.36 32/159 12-1
71 Georgetown 0 1365.7 79.35 34/134 5-7
72 Richmond 0 1364.26 42.69 48/105 12-8
73 Cincinnati 0 1361.2 91.13 30/148 5-9
74 Ave Maria 0 1359.58 101.16 31/151 16-3
75 Purdue 0 1357.22 57.64 43/122 9-11
76 Cedarville 0 1355.5 63.84 42/116 9-3
77 Carleton College-CHOP 0 1348.94 67.29 41/121 19-6
78 Grand Canyon 0 1340.7 64.9 44/131 9-9
79 Lewis & Clark 0 1339.69 81.83 36/137 12-2
80 Iowa 0 1337.61 90 31/153 15-3
81 Central Florida 0 1337.27 65.1 46/124 15-12
82 Northwestern 0 1335.48 66.14 42/130 10-9
83 Appalachian State 0 1326.8 47.94 49/120 12-11
84 Carnegie Mellon 0 1318.33 49.63 56/127 12-7
85 Bates 0 1317.07 54.43 55/127 17-2
86 Tennessee-Chattanooga 0 1309.98 74.64 42/142 10-8
87 Kentucky 0 1302.43 115.27 36/160 9-2
88 Tarleton State 0 1287.1 89.66 37/151 9-1
89 SUNY-Buffalo 0 1275.01 81.92 43/154 6-6
90 Indiana 0 1270.81 55.33 54/135 14-13
91 Tennessee 0 1267.11 61.51 56/141 3-15
92 Colorado-B 0 1266.1 87.48 44/171 12-6
93 Puget Sound 0 1260.79 114.67 40/174 10-0
94 Wisconsin-Eau Claire 0 1250.03 80.82 49/163 12-6
95 Connecticut 0 1249.4 34.9 71/129 14-7
96 Florida State 0 1247.77 65.52 56/148 10-15
97 Dartmouth 0 1245.64 51.54 59/141 9-10
98 Elon 0 1242.51 41.12 74/130 10-3
99 Vermont-B 0 1235.55 44.46 74/134 15-4
100 Cornell 0 1224.57 64.76 63/161 10-11
101 Davenport 0 1217.27 82.63 52/163 11-6
102 Bowdoin 0 1216 84.25 47/170 10-3
103 Dayton 0 1214.61 102.75 46/169 11-3
104 Mississippi State 0 1210.79 82.91 58/165 18-10
105 Notre Dame 0 1210.32 62.62 67/154 8-13
106 Princeton 0 1208.6 48.43 64/148 12-7
107 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 0 1199.7 71.62 60/160 7-6
108 Denver 0 1196.84 101.79 52/178 6-6
109 Arizona State 0 1192.59 66.75 69/152 10-4
110 SUNY-Binghamton 0 1191.72 64.58 62/166 7-12
111 Boston College 0 1189.89 68.65 68/163 6-2
112 Syracuse 0 1188.84 43.46 75/145 13-10
113 Grand Valley 0 1188.5 157.04 36/252 5-1
114 Southern California 0 1184.79 81.86 61/172 3-8
115 Liberty 0 1182.96 57.65 64/164 12-6
116 Vanderbilt 0 1179.97 62.06 62/161 5-12
117 Michigan Tech 0 1173.62 67.12 71/171 7-8
118 Berry 0 1172.32 58.96 65/162 13-7
119 Army 0 1160.57 99.45 57/195 9-3
120 Iowa State 0 1155.06 67.27 73/175 9-10
121 Oberlin 0 1152.55 81.75 59/191 6-7
122 Pennsylvania 0 1147.48 66.4 70/172 11-11
123 Macalester 0 1146.58 70.76 72/174 11-8
124 Davidson 0 1146.57 59.55 77/165 15-9
125 Lehigh 0 1145.39 41.73 94/156 8-17
126 College of New Jersey 0 1144.42 77.68 72/183 9-3
127 Colorado College 0 1136 75.79 69/185 9-10
128 San Jose State 0 1126.45 95.31 69/194 12-4
129 Towson 0 1116.83 60.19 84/177 12-8
130 Alabama-C 0 1114.5 131.94 43/226 6-0
131 Arkansas 0 1111.85 68.37 82/187 5-8
132 Loyola Marymount 0 1110.24 117.94 52/228 9-2
133 California-Irvine 0 1109.09 75.84 73/189 3-9
134 Kansas 0 1107.24 60.62 84/174 11-9
135 Houston 0 1107.21 113.49 49/219 5-1
136 Union (Tennessee) 0 1090.5 88.37 68/200 5-7
137 Tufts-B 0 1084.84 52.42 98/179 9-3
138 LSU 0 1084.6 65.07 96/178 7-11
139 Minnesota-B 0 1078.04 118.19 55/228 11-5
140 Bryant 0 1074.31 91.38 78/207 7-6
141 Boston University 0 1068.71 73.06 69/188 5-8
142 Brown-B 0 1065.97 104.9 72/214 5-2
143 Pittsburgh-B 0 1062.02 79.04 95/195 6-6
144 Southern Illinois-Edwardsville 0 1060.42 64 89/185 12-6
145 Yale 0 1060.05 70.02 93/206 9-12
146 Rochester 0 1036.81 92.9 90/236 4-6
147 Miami (Ohio) 0 1035.96 107.19 58/225 10-1
148 Navy 0 1034.29 56.01 109/194 6-8
149 Cal Poly-SLO-B 0 1033.94 53.59 110/184 9-10
150 West Chester 0 1026.57 82.14 92/211 11-5
151 Rhode Island 0 1026.41 56.17 110/189 10-9
152 Harvard 0 1023.19 72.61 80/199 3-17
153 Grace 0 1022.24 77.87 86/204 9-3
154 Johns Hopkins 0 1019.03 55.41 113/192 11-8
155 Kennesaw State 0 1010.72 47.34 123/190 7-12
156 Gonzaga 0 1002.87 140.44 58/266 5-1
157 Santa Clara 0 993.03 94.23 80/230 4-7
158 Truman State 0 992.69 73.29 105/211 8-11
159 Wesleyan 0 985.64 74.71 106/212 5-7
160 Xavier 0 973.48 65.42 116/220 15-6
161 UCLA-B 0 971.59 92.56 85/227 9-2
162 RIT 0 965.29 61.7 122/206 5-13
163 Villanova 0 958.54 71.4 121/229 15-4
164 Columbia 0 958.25 72.62 108/215 8-13
165 Washington State 0 953.98 73.85 118/222 14-5
166 Rutgers 0 951.64 51.93 127/212 6-20
167 Minnesota-Duluth 0 950.77 76.94 114/244 7-6
168 Montana State 0 947.5 134.35 67/254 1-4
169 Texas-San Antonio 0 940.29 57.74 123/210 6-6
170 Clemson 0 939.13 56.51 122/210 10-4
171 North Carolina-Asheville 0 936.47 80.31 111/227 9-4
172 Maryland-Baltimore County 0 928 78.06 121/238 7-5
173 Saint Louis 0 926.24 72.78 122/250 11-9
174 Miami (Florida) 0 916.55 231.17 43/322 4-2
175 Brigham Young-B 0 912.89 78.98 124/227 5-11
176 Missouri S&T 0 904.1 66.75 122/239 11-10
177 Wisconsin-La Crosse 0 898.16 71.01 125/240 7-5
178 Northeastern-B 0 898.07 72.76 127/236 6-7
179 Worcester Polytechnic Institute 0 890.83 72.16 129/233 5-8
180 Connecticut College 0 888.7 100.99 107/254 8-6
181 George Mason 0 876.05 76.18 129/241 5-7
182 South Florida 0 866.3 61.18 138/243 7-13
183 Washington-B 0 865.41 77.97 129/250 7-3
184 Salisbury 0 863.68 145.78 77/284 5-1
185 John Brown 0 862.39 78.05 132/246 7-6
186 East Carolina 0 862.04 82.16 133/246 10-8
187 Portland 0 861.75 68.67 134/251 11-6
188 Georgia-B 0 856.08 136.2 93/296 4-2
189 Harding 0 851.11 74.56 141/238 7-10
190 Northern Arizona 0 850.58 51.44 156/230 6-7
191 California-Davis 0 848.06 59.63 139/235 9-5
192 Grinnell 0 846.06 77.79 139/254 5-8
193 NYU 0 841.19 54.63 156/233 3-10
194 Haverford 0 836.18 83.36 133/265 11-6
195 Delaware 0 834.68 74.96 136/263 3-10
196 Messiah 0 832.24 65.57 150/249 7-13
197 Spring Hill 0 828.24 68.33 142/247 3-10
198 Alabama-Birmingham 0 826.87 54.39 154/242 17-12
199 California-B 0 826.52 61.8 152/247 12-7
200 West Virginia 0 819.37 59.68 158/246 10-10
201 Ohio 0 809.59 44.89 166/238 8-10
202 Ball State 0 805.79 66.14 144/251 15-6
203 George Washington 0 803.3 74.48 154/255 7-11
204 Colby 0 795.22 56.04 159/243 11-9
205 Virginia Commonwealth 0 785.38 76.02 148/264 8-10
206 Oklahoma 0 784 51.68 162/252 6-9
207 Charleston 0 776.87 102.44 139/275 6-8
208 Arizona 0 772.8 81.75 151/274 6-6
209 San Diego State 0 770.92 66.86 159/256 8-9
210 SUNY-Albany 0 766.14 84.57 152/274 6-5
211 Scranton 0 762.89 59.29 163/255 2-5
212 Texas-B 0 761.63 120.09 87/295 5-5
213 North Carolina State-B 0 760.32 102.91 120/281 5-6
214 Kenyon 0 758.95 62.76 165/254 1-6
215 Texas-Dallas 0 757.85 76.21 155/267 8-10
216 Central Connecticut State 0 755.54 107.83 133/278 7-5
217 Sam Houston 0 743.05 103.14 131/284 3-4
218 Baylor 0 739.74 64.37 154/263 10-6
219 Mississippi State -B 0 736.33 51.85 179/252 12-14
220 Mississippi State-C 0 733.41 66.55 169/271 4-2
221 American 0 731.75 66.11 167/266 5-13
222 Brandeis 0 730.24 61.99 163/263 9-11
223 Embry-Riddle 0 730 54.83 179/257 6-7
224 Cal State-Long Beach 0 722 66.98 172/268 7-7
225 Akron 0 719.45 137.74 119/321 3-2
226 Northern Iowa 0 715.79 66.4 164/271 10-8
227 Texas State 0 714.51 66.07 170/265 7-7
228 Christopher Newport 0 712.61 59.66 170/262 11-8
229 Cincinnati -B 0 706.38 90.32 151/281 3-3
230 Skidmore 0 704.52 88.33 145/277 8-5
231 Claremont 0 703.14 79.81 166/275 11-9
232 North Carolina-B 0 687.46 64.42 179/271 5-10
233 MIT 0 680.57 73.69 173/277 2-8
234 Rice 0 676.68 116.1 147/309 4-4
235 Wake Forest 0 675.13 77.99 184/286 4-5
236 Maryland-B 0 674.78 160.73 77/330 6-0
237 Middlebury-B 0 671.72 80.19 172/288 6-7
238 Wheaton (Illinois) 0 668.74 96.13 164/287 8-1
239 Butler 0 668.37 73.1 165/287 5-9
240 North Texas 0 654.35 80.12 175/285 6-8
241 Georgia Southern 0 650.55 84.51 166/286 4-7
242 Georgia College 0 647.36 122.95 128/308 4-6
243 Montana 0 638.01 116.93 148/318 3-4
244 SUNY-Geneseo 0 637.5 52.55 202/275 6-7
245 Carthage 0 630.79 98.41 162/303 8-7
246 Hillsdale 0 629.24 132.12 146/332 4-2
247 Georgia Tech-B 0 627.86 63.66 192/281 10-10
248 Amherst 0 612.26 88.05 178/300 4-8
249 Dickinson 0 610.43 77.71 194/297 8-6
250 Nebraska 0 605.68 72.7 192/287 6-7
251 Oklahoma State 0 599.53 58.73 211/284 6-13
252 St John's (Minnesota) 0 584.96 54.82 216/290 7-6
253 Virginia Tech-B 0 576.62 64.66 196/290 5-7
254 Air Force 0 571.36 95.54 172/311 1-6
255 Cornell-B 0 569.22 95.2 173/312 6-4
256 Wisconsin-B 0 560.43 81.03 202/313 4-8
257 Illinois State 0 558.62 86.88 195/301 5-6
258 Texas Tech 0 555.11 89.92 200/325 5-10
259 Loyola-Chicago 0 545.98 163.13 136/351 4-3
260 Colorado-C 0 543.59 28.31 242/278 2-2
261 Jacksonville State 0 541.75 65.49 222/302 6-13
262 Massachusetts-Lowell 0 528.99 115.96 176/331 0-4
263 Alabama-B 0 520.94 48.87 230/303 7-14
264 Western New England 0 512.32 67.4 225/306 3-10
265 Rowan 0 511.96 42.92 240/288 5-16
266 High Point 0 511.1 110.1 204/325 2-4
267 Northeastern-C 0 507.98 94.39 183/319 5-7
268 Nevada-Reno 0 506.96 101.13 207/332 4-7
269 Trinity 0 503.96 107.14 192/329 4-9
270 Western Michigan 0 502.94 75.65 220/315 6-7
271 Florida-B 0 500.99 122.04 176/335 7-5
272 Stevens Tech 0 497.45 87.97 199/323 8-9
273 SUNY-Stony Brook 0 497.13 98.27 199/316 1-10
274 Whitworth 0 479.7 52.57 241/307 8-10
275 Drexel 0 473.63 73.59 218/321 2-10
276 Edinboro 0 450.84 58.56 247/318 8-11
277 Hofstra 0 449.47 68.7 235/316 2-8
278 Knox 0 430.89 63.97 244/319 8-10
279 Pacific Lutheran 0 430.87 67.83 244/318 4-10
280 Southern California-B 0 427.27 72.4 230/328 3-8
281 Reed 0 422.14 81.37 229/325 3-10
282 Wisconsin-Platteville 0 420.8 114.91 203/345 6-4
283 Georgetown-B 0 412.75 68.11 244/324 5-0
284 Connecticut-B 0 410.73 59.84 250/319 5-8
285 Michigan-B 0 407.14 121.48 208/346 0-4
286 Idaho 0 405.33 53.13 256/316 2-4
287 California-Santa Barbara-B 0 402.65 57.64 250/319 5-11
288 Florida Tech 0 389.32 80.06 233/341 8-3
289 Toledo 0 387.55 111.03 226/345 6-8
290 Harvard-B 0 369.58 76.6 242/336 3-7
291 South Carolina-B 0 369.12 52.64 259/323 4-14
292 Occidental 0 365.99 58.53 254/323 2-5
293 Mary Washington 0 363.78 82.21 247/334 0-12
294 Minnesota-C 0 357.54 94.61 245/343 1-11
295 Texas A&M-B 0 351.81 108.28 229/351 2-9
296 Virginia-B 0 349.24 91.98 238/338 3-8
297 Vermont-C 0 346.88 184.3 177/364 2-3
298 Wright State 0 338.47 74.61 247/340 4-7
299 Kent State 0 331.64 83.88 239/346 2-9
300 Penn State-Behrend 0 329.4 66.24 262/331 2-5
301 Swarthmore 0 324.08 73.02 251/348 4-8
302 Chico State 0 317.96 87.73 255/344 2-7
303 James Madison-B 0 316.58 147.19 199/363 3-3
304 DePaul 0 313.87 99.31 238/349 1-5
305 Arizona State-B 0 302.77 113.67 242/352 2-8
306 Florida Gulf Coast 0 289.7 87.25 260/347 8-4
307 Rutgers-B 0 288.29 92.93 254/355 3-9
308 Dartmouth-B 0 284.25 115.32 222/357 4-3
309 Kansas-B 0 282.94 72.26 267/342 3-9
310 Bentley 0 281.98 106.7 247/363 3-7
311 Bradley 0 273.56 123.64 245/358 1-2
312 SUNY-Fredonia 0 273.54 55.66 282/342 5-5
313 Washington University-B 0 270.22 73.29 268/351 5-14
314 Rose-Hulman 0 267.13 113.91 242/360 1-6
315 Purdue-B 0 262.3 72.64 268/346 5-10
316 Cal Poly-SLO-C 0 259.59 68.76 276/344 1-4
317 SUNY-Binghamton-B 0 255.69 78.05 264/348 6-9
318 Luther 0 248.06 85.8 266/356 3-9
319 California-Santa Cruz-B 0 239.49 64.83 273/345 4-11
320 Coastal Carolina 0 226.15 61.77 280/348 0-11
321 Carleton College-Karls-C 0 212.24 92.03 259/357 1-6
322 Samford 0 195.66 150.46 254/375 0-4
323 Denver-B 0 189.75 115.48 251/362 3-8
324 Richmond-B 0 185.68 80.57 276/363 3-3
325 California-San Diego-C 0 175.16 82.07 284/363 0-5
326 California-San Diego-B 0 171.51 90.9 252/365 2-9
327 New Jersey Tech 0 163.75 68.82 289/358 4-6
328 Dallas 0 157.98 97.08 278/361 1-7
329 LSU-B 0 151.44 96.52 271/362 2-10
330 Florida Polytechnic 0 150.25 131.94 248/368 4-2
331 Wichita State 0 121.02 103.42 273/367 2-10
332 Illinois-B 0 119.82 102.2 273/366 4-10
333 St Thomas 0 116.69 153.88 257/370 2-5
334 North Park 0 113.08 69.67 292/361 1-3
335 Portland State 0 105.28 142.47 262/374 2-13
336 Willamette 0 97.38 140.07 266/372 1-4
337 Boise State 0 96.53 92.12 284/363 0-11
338 Wisconsin-Stevens Point 0 90.84 75.63 293/367 2-8
339 Colorado State-B 0 86.45 197.93 227/376 0-5
340 Lehigh-B 0 86.14 76.35 307/361 3-9
341 Seattle 0 54.9 80.16 306/365 1-5
342 George Washington-B 0 43.86 67.76 310/362 6-6
343 Calvin University 0 40.51 153.27 241/376 0-6
344 Delaware-B 0 29.86 92.67 302/370 2-3
345 Cal Poly-Humboldt 0 27.1 125 278/371 2-13
346 SUNY-Buffalo-B 0 25.44 78.89 309/367 2-9
347 Kansas State 0 23.87 97.12 299/368 1-5
348 Rensselaer Polytech 0 16.9 136.42 271/373 0-10
349 Notre Dame-B 0 14.13 129.55 274/371 3-3
350 Indiana-B 0 10.31 100.11 295/372 0-7
351 Concordia-Wisconsin 0 7.19 122.95 288/371 3-7
352 Oregon State-B 0 -8.5 125.73 276/372 2-13
353 SUNY-Albany-B 0 -16.84 98.18 304/371 2-6
354 Texas-Arlington 0 -20.33 88.37 310/370 0-10
355 Iowa State-B 0 -30.08 144.97 265/375 3-3
356 North Florida 0 -40.04 151.05 282/375 3-10
357 Ohio-B 0 -46.98 191.15 256/378 0-7
358 Johns Hopkins-B 0 -48.84 89.6 311/373 2-3
359 Case Western Reserve-B 0 -54.69 146.07 285/373 2-4
360 Michigan State-B 0 -55.38 142.81 285/376 2-8
361 Florida State-B 0 -76.6 85.14 315/373 3-9
362 Siena 0 -133.62 123.79 293/376 0-10
363 Southern Mississippi 0 -161.26 112.21 317/375 0-13
364 American-B 0 -182.5 68.16 345/374 2-9
365 Northwestern-B 0 -205.3 172.17 302/378 1-11
366 San Diego State-B 0 -265.62 199.02 312/378 0-4
367 William & Mary-B 0 -271.9 91.27 346/376 0-6
368 Dayton-B 0 -330.58 172.44 297/378 1-5
369 West Chester-B 0 -332.24 118.76 336/378 0-10
370 Denison 0 -350.49 266.37 259/379 1-5
371 Wisconsin-Eau Claire-B 0 -351.94 186.32 329/379 0-6
372 RIT-B 0 -367.63 122.91 345/378 0-6
373 Iowa-B 0 -383.94 238.64 274/379 1-5
374 Tulane-B 0 -427.87 368.38 209/379 0-6
375 South Florida-B 0 -480.4 133.43 354/379 2-9
376 Wisconsin-Oshkosh 0 -486.92 213.38 335/379 0-3
377 Ave Maria-B 0 -561.64 131.64 362/379 1-5
378 Wisconsin-Milwaukee-B 0 -742.26 273.88 324/379 0-8
379 Central Florida-B 0 -1017.64 292.08 334/379 0-6

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of its teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)