#96 Magma Bears (17-11)

avg: 1068.2  •  sd: 64.71  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
88 Club M - Manic Win 14-10 1510.47 Jun 22nd Boston Invite 2019
59 Big Wrench Loss 10-14 872.75 Jun 22nd Boston Invite 2019
148 Overcast Win 9-8 902.22 Jun 22nd Boston Invite 2019
42 Shade Loss 7-14 827.14 Jun 22nd Boston Invite 2019
144 Club M - Magma Loss 9-15 283.17 Jun 23rd Boston Invite 2019
77 Log Jam Loss 8-15 589.62 Jun 23rd Boston Invite 2019
143 Shrike Win 14-12 1028.03 Jun 23rd Boston Invite 2019
213 Hail Mary Win 11-5 969.69 Jul 20th Stonewalled 2019
152 Watchdogs Win 11-9 1012.11 Jul 20th Stonewalled 2019
22 Vault Loss 5-11 1065.92 Jul 20th Stonewalled 2019
26 Blueprint Loss 4-13 950.07 Jul 21st Stonewalled 2019
107 John Doe Loss 11-12 881.94 Jul 21st Stonewalled 2019
75 Richmond Floodwall Loss 11-13 936.33 Jul 21st Stonewalled 2019
211 Bearproof** Win 13-4 991.47 Ignored Aug 10th Nuccis Cup 2019
107 John Doe Win 13-8 1503.1 Aug 10th Nuccis Cup 2019
207 Sky Hook** Win 13-3 1019.62 Ignored Aug 10th Nuccis Cup 2019
131 Slag Dump Win 13-9 1311.22 Aug 10th Nuccis Cup 2019
199 Winc City Fog of War Win 15-9 980.09 Aug 11th Nuccis Cup 2019
132 JAWN Win 15-8 1451.38 Aug 11th Nuccis Cup 2019
107 John Doe Win 14-12 1227.9 Aug 11th Nuccis Cup 2019
50 Colt Loss 5-13 744.87 Sep 7th Metro New York Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
241 defunCT** Win 13-2 436.29 Ignored Sep 7th Metro New York Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
- Festive Salmon Win 13-6 986.4 Sep 7th Metro New York Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
77 Log Jam Loss 9-14 680.56 Sep 7th Metro New York Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
50 Colt Win 13-8 1841.03 Sep 8th Metro New York Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
207 Sky Hook** Win 15-4 1019.62 Ignored Sep 8th Metro New York Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
77 Log Jam Win 15-10 1608.03 Sep 8th Metro New York Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
42 Shade Loss 8-15 845.22 Sep 8th Metro New York Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)