#166 Rip City (2-11)

avg: 684.13  •  sd: 74.71  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
156 Cojones Loss 7-11 276 Jun 22nd Eugene Summer Solstice 2019
53 Ghost Train** Loss 3-13 710.85 Ignored Jun 22nd Eugene Summer Solstice 2019
15 Rhino Slam!** Loss 4-13 1253.54 Ignored Jun 22nd Eugene Summer Solstice 2019
40 Blackfish** Loss 4-13 812.76 Ignored Jun 22nd Eugene Summer Solstice 2019
196 Komori Win 14-11 795.64 Jun 23rd Eugene Summer Solstice 2019
136 Syndicate Loss 8-12 414.93 Jun 23rd Eugene Summer Solstice 2019
93 Dark Star Loss 5-15 477.26 Aug 3rd CBR 2019
97 PowderHogs Loss 6-15 464.11 Aug 3rd CBR 2019
40 Blackfish Loss 7-15 812.76 Aug 3rd CBR 2019
53 Ghost Train** Loss 6-15 710.85 Ignored Aug 4th CBR 2019
121 Green River Swordfish Win 15-13 1154.37 Aug 4th CBR 2019
83 Seattle Blacklist Loss 11-15 744.86 Aug 4th CBR 2019
93 Dark Star Loss 16-19 814.59 Sep 7th Oregon Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)