#85 Pesterbug (11-10)

avg: 930.2  •  sd: 67.42  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
57 Shade Loss 11-12 975.17 Jun 23rd Boston Invite 2018
34 Lost Boys Loss 8-15 744.38 Jun 23rd Boston Invite 2018
62 Club M - Manic Loss 14-16 875.48 Jun 23rd Boston Invite 2018
105 Bruises Win 15-9 1305.45 Jun 24th Boston Invite 2018
- Allen's Adolescents** Win 13-1 600 Ignored Jul 21st Vacationland 2018
138 Ender's Outcasts Win 13-10 854.91 Jul 21st Vacationland 2018
131 Somerville BAG Win 13-7 1185.9 Jul 21st Vacationland 2018
156 One Night** Win 13-4 898.74 Ignored Jul 21st Vacationland 2018
94 Red Tide Loss 11-13 652.68 Jul 21st Vacationland 2018
105 Bruises Loss 10-13 461.82 Jul 22nd Vacationland 2018
134 Watch City Win 11-6 1135.59 Jul 22nd Vacationland 2018
105 Bruises Loss 9-13 371.4 Sep 8th East New England Mens Sectional Championship 2018
29 Big Wrench Loss 10-13 1049.7 Sep 8th East New England Mens Sectional Championship 2018
134 Watch City Win 13-5 1188.9 Sep 8th East New England Mens Sectional Championship 2018
156 One Night Win 13-6 898.74 Sep 8th East New England Mens Sectional Championship 2018
122 Baked Beans Win 13-4 1302.46 Sep 9th East New England Mens Sectional Championship 2018
105 Bruises Win 13-9 1208.53 Sep 9th East New England Mens Sectional Championship 2018
138 Ender's Outcasts Win 13-8 1022.93 Sep 9th East New England Mens Sectional Championship 2018
14 GOAT** Loss 2-15 1115.11 Ignored Sep 22nd Northeast Mens Regional Championship 2018
28 Phoenix Loss 9-15 864.44 Sep 22nd Northeast Mens Regional Championship 2018
67 Red Circus Loss 11-15 658.35 Sep 22nd Northeast Mens Regional Championship 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)