#165 War Machine (1-24)

avg: 103.5  •  sd: 85.08  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
66 Bullet** Loss 2-13 441.59 Ignored Jun 16th ATL Classic 2018
44 El Niño** Loss 4-13 645 Ignored Jun 16th ATL Classic 2018
102 H.O.G. Ultimate Loss 7-13 269.98 Jun 16th ATL Classic 2018
145 Rampage Loss 8-13 -60.31 Jun 16th ATL Classic 2018
71 UpRoar Loss 9-12 677.85 Jun 17th ATL Classic 2018
114 Cockfight Loss 5-11 163.48 Jun 17th ATL Classic 2018
145 Rampage Loss 7-11 -31.04 Jun 17th ATL Classic 2018
160 Duel Win 12-11 350.03 Jul 7th Huckfest 2018
- Austin Amigos Loss 5-11 -257.86 Jul 7th Huckfest 2018
145 Rampage Loss 3-13 -164.15 Jul 7th Huckfest 2018
- Nashvillians Loss 3-4 246.51 Jul 7th Huckfest 2018
160 Duel Loss 10-13 -103.11 Jul 8th Huckfest 2018
145 Rampage Loss 8-13 -60.31 Jul 8th Huckfest 2018
97 Rush Hour** Loss 3-13 251.18 Ignored Jul 21st Club Terminus 2018
15 Chain Lightning** Loss 1-13 1092.74 Ignored Jul 21st Club Terminus 2018
104 Black Lung Loss 6-13 208.72 Jul 21st Club Terminus 2018
107 BaNC Loss 6-13 175.64 Jul 22nd Club Terminus 2018
101 Memphis Belle** Loss 2-13 229.87 Ignored Jul 22nd Club Terminus 2018
133 Holy City Heathens Loss 4-11 6.4 Jul 22nd Club Terminus 2018
101 Memphis Belle Loss 7-13 272.34 Sep 8th Gulf Coast Mens Sectional Championship 2018
98 Southern Hospitality Loss 6-13 249.05 Sep 8th Gulf Coast Mens Sectional Championship 2018
145 Rampage Loss 5-11 -164.15 Sep 8th Gulf Coast Mens Sectional Championship 2018
55 Ironmen** Loss 4-13 552.22 Ignored Sep 8th Gulf Coast Mens Sectional Championship 2018
115 Rougaroux** Loss 4-13 154.42 Ignored Sep 9th Gulf Coast Mens Sectional Championship 2018
106 Battleship** Loss 4-13 177.88 Ignored Sep 9th Gulf Coast Mens Sectional Championship 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)