#87 Westchester Magma Bears (14-12)

avg: 913.88  •  sd: 50.87  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
105 Bruises Win 14-12 1010.92 Jun 23rd Boston Invite 2018
29 Big Wrench Loss 2-15 777.85 Jun 23rd Boston Invite 2018
50 Colt Loss 8-15 648.05 Jun 23rd Boston Invite 2018
62 Club M - Manic Loss 5-15 483.78 Jun 23rd Boston Invite 2018
57 Shade Loss 9-14 626.3 Jun 24th Boston Invite 2018
77 Deathsquad Loss 13-14 855.92 Jun 24th Boston Invite 2018
94 Red Tide Win 15-13 1095.7 Jul 7th AntlerLock 2018
77 Deathsquad Loss 13-15 766.74 Jul 7th AntlerLock 2018
156 One Night Win 15-10 752.34 Jul 7th AntlerLock 2018
105 Bruises Win 15-12 1090.46 Jul 8th AntlerLock 2018
131 Somerville BAG Win 13-12 753.37 Jul 8th AntlerLock 2018
118 Adelphos Win 13-9 1136.95 Aug 11th Nuccis Cup 2018
- Bearproof Win 13-10 713.59 Aug 11th Nuccis Cup 2018
135 Helots Win 13-6 1186.33 Aug 11th Nuccis Cup 2018
77 Deathsquad Win 13-9 1399.49 Aug 11th Nuccis Cup 2018
57 Shade Loss 12-13 975.17 Aug 12th Nuccis Cup 2018
126 Watchdogs Win 13-9 1089.96 Aug 12th Nuccis Cup 2018
109 JAWN Win 14-13 894.86 Aug 12th Nuccis Cup 2018
- Black Knights Win 15-7 1059.46 Sep 8th Metro New York Mens Sectional Championship 2018
- Spring Break '93 Win 15-7 1042.82 Sep 8th Metro New York Mens Sectional Championship 2018
50 Colt Loss 10-15 759.26 Sep 8th Metro New York Mens Sectional Championship 2018
54 Blueprint Loss 9-13 740.12 Sep 9th Metro New York Mens Sectional Championship 2018
105 Bruises Win 14-9 1263.83 Sep 22nd Northeast Mens Regional Championship 2018
29 Big Wrench Loss 9-15 862.36 Sep 22nd Northeast Mens Regional Championship 2018
45 Mockingbird Loss 8-15 673.97 Sep 22nd Northeast Mens Regional Championship 2018
28 Phoenix Loss 7-15 779.92 Sep 22nd Northeast Mens Regional Championship 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)