#64 Gamble (22-12)

avg: 1251.24  •  sd: 61.89  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
88 Harvey Cats Win 10-9 1223.86 Jun 29th Texas 2 Finger Mens and Womens
217 Surrilic Audovice** Win 13-1 912.16 Ignored Jun 29th Texas 2 Finger Mens and Womens
138 Glycerine Win 13-6 1454.45 Jun 29th Texas 2 Finger Mens and Womens
106 Papa Bear Win 13-10 1348.1 Jun 29th Texas 2 Finger Mens and Womens
79 Riverside Loss 11-15 770 Jun 30th Texas 2 Finger Mens and Womens
72 Texas United Loss 9-15 669.9 Jun 30th Texas 2 Finger Mens and Womens
88 Harvey Cats Loss 9-11 849.65 Jun 30th Texas 2 Finger Mens and Womens
222 Texas Toast** Win 15-1 861.24 Ignored Jul 13th Riverside Classic 2019
201 Alamode Win 15-7 1051.91 Jul 13th Riverside Classic 2019
88 Harvey Cats Loss 10-11 973.86 Jul 13th Riverside Classic 2019
150 Foxtrot Win 15-8 1342.75 Jul 14th Riverside Classic 2019
58 Gaucho Loss 10-15 835.58 Jul 14th Riverside Classic 2019
72 Texas United Loss 9-11 936.17 Jul 14th Riverside Classic 2019
217 Surrilic Audovice Win 15-9 827.64 Jul 14th Riverside Classic 2019
215 Messengers-B** Win 13-5 941.18 Ignored Jul 27th PBJ 2019
58 Gaucho Loss 7-13 731.66 Jul 27th PBJ 2019
179 E.V.I.L.** Win 13-5 1203.32 Ignored Jul 27th PBJ 2019
106 Papa Bear Win 13-7 1577.49 Jul 27th PBJ 2019
201 Alamode Win 13-9 870.47 Jul 28th PBJ 2019
26 H.I.P Loss 7-15 983.07 Jul 28th PBJ 2019
58 Gaucho Loss 12-15 988.7 Jul 28th PBJ 2019
150 Foxtrot Win 13-5 1377.94 Sep 7th Texas Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
215 Messengers-B** Win 13-4 941.18 Ignored Sep 7th Texas Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
28 Clutch Loss 8-13 1016.08 Sep 7th Texas Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
88 Harvey Cats Win 12-9 1444.23 Sep 7th Texas Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
79 Riverside Win 13-11 1380.01 Sep 8th Texas Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
58 Gaucho Win 13-11 1518.03 Sep 8th Texas Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
40 Nitro Win 13-4 2021.97 Sep 8th Texas Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
106 Papa Bear Win 13-9 1438.53 Sep 21st South Central Club Mens Regional Championship 2019
113 Choice City Hops Win 13-7 1549.43 Sep 21st South Central Club Mens Regional Championship 2019
41 Inception Loss 11-12 1295.45 Sep 21st South Central Club Mens Regional Championship 2019
58 Gaucho Loss 7-10 899.52 Sep 22nd South Central Club Mens Regional Championship 2019
40 Nitro Win 10-7 1811.63 Sep 22nd South Central Club Mens Regional Championship 2019
80 ISO Atmo Win 13-9 1565.48 Sep 22nd South Central Club Mens Regional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)