#139 Overcast (11-17)

avg: 842.47  •  sd: 59.3  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
87 Magma Bears Loss 8-9 980.39 Jun 22nd Boston Invite 2019
83 Club M - Manic Loss 10-15 672.9 Jun 22nd Boston Invite 2019
62 Big Wrench Loss 8-13 780.48 Jun 22nd Boston Invite 2019
121 Genny The Boys Loss 6-13 329.67 Jun 23rd Boston Invite 2019
118 Shrike Loss 7-11 485.58 Jun 23rd Boston Invite 2019
112 Somerville BAG Loss 8-13 497.22 Jun 23rd Boston Invite 2019
66 Deathsquad Loss 9-12 896.95 Jun 23rd Boston Invite 2019
224 Fusion Win 13-3 843.6 Jul 13th Ow My Knee
206 Sky Hook Win 11-7 894.01 Jul 13th Ow My Knee
220 Genny Lite Win 13-5 880.4 Jul 14th Ow My Knee
181 Helots Win 10-8 845.07 Jul 14th Ow My Knee
94 Log Jam Loss 8-13 581.51 Aug 24th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
232 Bees** Win 13-0 703.93 Ignored Aug 24th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
163 One Night Loss 9-13 292.57 Aug 24th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
95 Red Tide Loss 5-12 477.07 Aug 24th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
175 Bomb Squad Win 11-5 1232.86 Aug 25th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
157 Ender's Outcasts Win 12-8 1183.81 Aug 25th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
220 Genny Lite Win 13-5 880.4 Sep 7th Upstate New York Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
235 Buffalo Open** Win 13-4 610.32 Ignored Sep 7th Upstate New York Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
118 Shrike Loss 8-13 456.31 Sep 7th Upstate New York Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
27 Phoenix Loss 8-9 1402.32 Sep 7th Upstate New York Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
220 Genny Lite Win 15-4 880.4 Sep 8th Upstate New York Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
118 Shrike Win 15-4 1552.47 Sep 8th Upstate New York Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
62 Big Wrench Loss 9-13 858.07 Sep 21st Northeast Club Mens Regional Championship 2019
44 Shade Loss 6-13 809.19 Sep 21st Northeast Club Mens Regional Championship 2019
8 DiG** Loss 5-13 1351.74 Ignored Sep 21st Northeast Club Mens Regional Championship 2019
35 Blueprint Loss 8-15 912.38 Sep 22nd Northeast Club Mens Regional Championship 2019
112 Somerville BAG Loss 13-14 868.38 Sep 22nd Northeast Club Mens Regional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)