#83 Supercell (18-9)

avg: 940.63  •  sd: 55.53  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
84 Gaucho Win 13-10 1267.43 Jun 30th Texas Two Finger 2018
35 Nitro Loss 8-11 936.64 Jun 30th Texas Two Finger 2018
166 Surrillic Audovice** Win 13-3 682.76 Ignored Jun 30th Texas Two Finger 2018
82 Riverside Win 14-12 1165.36 Jul 1st Texas Two Finger 2018
110 Dreadnought Win 13-8 1265.54 Jul 1st Texas Two Finger 2018
147 DUCS Win 15-8 976.51 Jul 1st Texas Two Finger 2018
43 Clutch Loss 10-12 1016.6 Jul 1st Texas Two Finger 2018
92 Choice City Hops Win 13-9 1306.56 Jul 21st The Royal Experience 18
120 KC SmokeStack Win 11-10 836.75 Jul 21st The Royal Experience 18
- Confluence** Win 13-5 792.2 Ignored Jul 21st The Royal Experience 18
80 ISO Atmo Win 12-10 1195.95 Jul 21st The Royal Experience 18
59 Mallard Loss 10-15 644.45 Jul 22nd The Royal Experience 18
60 DeMo Win 15-11 1477.74 Jul 22nd The Royal Experience 18
130 Syndicate Win 15-10 1084.58 Jul 22nd The Royal Experience 18
110 Dreadnought Win 11-10 894.38 Aug 11th Hootie on the Hill 2018
101 Memphis Belle Loss 11-12 704.87 Aug 11th Hootie on the Hill 2018
153 Rawhide** Win 13-4 908.14 Ignored Aug 11th Hootie on the Hill 2018
110 Dreadnought Loss 11-13 540.54 Aug 12th Hootie on the Hill 2018
153 Rawhide Win 15-10 761.74 Aug 12th Hootie on the Hill 2018
110 Dreadnought Win 14-10 1168.09 Sep 8th Ozarks Mens Sectional Championship 2018
153 Rawhide Win 15-11 689.3 Sep 8th Ozarks Mens Sectional Championship 2018
147 DUCS Win 13-7 969.24 Sep 22nd South Central Mens Regional Championship 2018
69 Gamble Loss 10-13 705.31 Sep 22nd South Central Mens Regional Championship 2018
13 Johnny Bravo Loss 6-13 1176.46 Sep 22nd South Central Mens Regional Championship 2018
79 Papa Bear Loss 7-15 359.27 Sep 22nd South Central Mens Regional Championship 2018
92 Choice City Hops Loss 14-15 762.99 Sep 23rd South Central Mens Regional Championship 2018
84 Gaucho Win 15-12 1239.78 Sep 23rd South Central Mens Regional Championship 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)