#31 Black Market I (19-13)

avg: 1495.14  •  sd: 73.09  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
193 Midnight Meat Train** Win 13-2 1105.08 Ignored Jul 6th Motown Throwdown 2019
136 Dynasty Win 13-7 1432.72 Jul 6th Motown Throwdown 2019
208 Red Imp.ala** Win 13-4 1005.55 Ignored Jul 6th Motown Throwdown 2019
123 CaSTLe Win 13-5 1523.61 Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2019
135 Enigma Win 12-8 1317.02 Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2019
81 Omen Win 8-7 1263.86 Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2019
54 Red Circus Loss 11-12 1200.74 Jul 27th TCT Select Flight Invite East 2019
29 Brickhouse Loss 7-13 950.72 Jul 27th TCT Select Flight Invite East 2019
11 Pittsburgh Temper Loss 7-13 1304.22 Jul 27th TCT Select Flight Invite East 2019
43 MKE Win 13-8 1907.49 Jul 27th TCT Select Flight Invite East 2019
42 Garden State Ultimate Win 13-9 1832.59 Jul 28th TCT Select Flight Invite East 2019
62 Big Wrench Win 13-5 1876.64 Jul 28th TCT Select Flight Invite East 2019
36 Freaks Win 13-11 1704.24 Aug 17th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2019
16 Johnny Bravo Loss 8-15 1224.72 Aug 17th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2019
8 DiG Loss 9-15 1436.25 Aug 17th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2019
19 Voodoo Win 10-4 2291.19 Aug 18th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2019
15 Rhino Slam! Loss 7-11 1350.7 Aug 18th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2019
22 Patrol Loss 5-10 1054.95 Aug 18th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2019
14 Chain Lightning Loss 10-11 1693.1 Aug 18th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2019
46 Haymaker Win 12-11 1521.63 Sep 7th Central Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
111 Black Market II Win 13-2 1595.25 Sep 7th Central Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
226 Nasty Girls** Win 13-4 834.16 Ignored Sep 7th Central Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
227 Bird Patrol** Win 13-4 833.85 Ignored Sep 7th Central Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
46 Haymaker Win 15-10 1850.23 Sep 8th Central Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
21 Brickyard Loss 10-15 1189.58 Sep 8th Central Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
81 Omen Win 11-8 1504.47 Sep 21st Great Lakes Mens Regional Championship 2019
21 Brickyard Loss 8-11 1277.58 Sep 21st Great Lakes Mens Regional Championship 2019
133 Kentucky Flying Circus Win 11-5 1484.93 Sep 21st Great Lakes Mens Regional Championship 2019
46 Haymaker Win 13-8 1892.79 Sep 22nd Great Lakes Mens Regional Championship 2019
20 CLE Smokestack Loss 7-11 1195.9 Sep 22nd Great Lakes Mens Regional Championship 2019
20 CLE Smokestack Loss 8-10 1400.13 Sep 22nd Great Lakes Mens Regional Championship 2019
21 Brickyard Loss 9-10 1518.19 Sep 22nd Great Lakes Mens Regional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)