#48 Four (20-11)

avg: 1216.08  •  sd: 69.51  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
49 CaSTLe Loss 11-12 1089.15 Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2018
149 Chimney** Win 15-5 947.03 Ignored Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2018
51 BroCats Win 12-11 1314.85 Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2018
31 Black Market Win 15-13 1560.91 Jul 8th Motown Throwdown 2018
51 BroCats Loss 13-15 975.67 Jul 8th Motown Throwdown 2018
90 Omen Win 15-7 1501.03 Jul 8th Motown Throwdown 2018
29 Big Wrench Loss 7-13 820.31 Aug 4th Heavyweights 2018
26 Brickyard Loss 9-13 980.27 Aug 4th Heavyweights 2018
39 Mad Men Win 13-7 1836.5 Aug 4th Heavyweights 2018
95 Scythe Win 13-10 1207.21 Aug 5th Heavyweights 2018
31 Black Market Loss 10-13 1018.59 Aug 5th Heavyweights 2018
56 Haymaker Win 12-11 1255.27 Aug 5th Heavyweights 2018
31 Black Market Loss 11-13 1117.89 Aug 25th The Bropen 2018
53 Illusion Win 13-10 1502.23 Aug 25th The Bropen 2018
47 MKE Loss 10-13 896.23 Aug 25th The Bropen 2018
161 Ironside** Win 13-3 807.16 Ignored Aug 25th The Bropen 2018
49 CaSTLe Win 13-11 1442.99 Aug 26th The Bropen 2018
31 Black Market Loss 8-13 850.57 Aug 26th The Bropen 2018
100 Babe Win 11-0 1433.2 Sep 8th East Plains Mens Sectional Championship 2018
51 BroCats Win 11-8 1555.46 Sep 8th East Plains Mens Sectional Championship 2018
90 Omen Win 11-8 1266.64 Sep 8th East Plains Mens Sectional Championship 2018
159 Midnight Meat Train Win 11-6 782.54 Sep 8th East Plains Mens Sectional Championship 2018
36 CLE Smokestack Win 15-7 1899.63 Sep 9th East Plains Mens Sectional Championship 2018
112 Enigma Win 11-4 1364.44 Sep 9th East Plains Mens Sectional Championship 2018
139 Kentucky Flying Circus** Win 11-2 1125.5 Ignored Sep 9th East Plains Mens Sectional Championship 2018
112 Enigma Win 13-0 1364.44 Sep 22nd Great Lakes Mens Regional Championship 2018
31 Black Market Loss 11-12 1221.73 Sep 22nd Great Lakes Mens Regional Championship 2018
121 BlackER Market Win 15-10 1160.06 Sep 22nd Great Lakes Mens Regional Championship 2018
90 Omen Win 13-7 1458.56 Sep 22nd Great Lakes Mens Regional Championship 2018
36 CLE Smokestack Loss 7-15 699.63 Sep 23rd Great Lakes Mens Regional Championship 2018
73 Greater Gary Goblins Y Loss 11-15 634.63 Sep 23rd Great Lakes Mens Regional Championship 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)