#189 Rawhide (5-10)

avg: 532.93  •  sd: 60.68  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
155 Supercell Loss 9-11 499.1 Jul 12th OK Corral 2019
155 Supercell Loss 12-13 623.31 Jul 12th OK Corral 2019
155 Supercell Loss 10-11 623.31 Jul 13th OK Corral 2019
155 Supercell Win 11-10 873.31 Jul 13th OK Corral 2019
138 Glycerine Loss 7-13 296.91 Aug 17th Hootie on the Hill 2019
155 Supercell Loss 6-13 148.31 Aug 17th Hootie on the Hill 2019
71 Dreadnought** Loss 4-13 590.7 Ignored Aug 17th Hootie on the Hill 2019
138 Glycerine Win 4-3 979.45 Aug 18th Hootie on the Hill 2019
155 Supercell Win 11-10 873.31 Aug 18th Hootie on the Hill 2019
71 Dreadnought Loss 7-13 633.16 Aug 18th Hootie on the Hill 2019
155 Supercell Loss 10-15 294.7 Sep 7th Ozarks Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
71 Dreadnought Loss 8-15 625.89 Sep 7th Ozarks Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
- Huckleberry Win 15-13 357.61 Sep 7th Ozarks Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
155 Supercell Loss 10-15 294.7 Sep 8th Ozarks Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
- Huckleberry Win 15-8 708.24 Sep 8th Ozarks Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)