#70 Omen (17-8)

avg: 1202.52  •  sd: 61.12  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
129 Kentucky Flying Circus Win 13-5 1498.44 Jun 22nd SCINNY 2019
204 Red Imp.ala Win 13-8 927.37 Jun 22nd SCINNY 2019
242 Flying Piglet** Win 13-1 262.11 Ignored Jun 22nd SCINNY 2019
172 Hazard Win 13-7 1213.81 Jun 23rd SCINNY 2019
125 Dynasty Win 13-8 1404.48 Jun 23rd SCINNY 2019
128 Enigma Win 13-8 1395.29 Jun 23rd SCINNY 2019
82 Black Lung Loss 7-15 526.33 Jun 23rd SCINNY 2019
225 Flying Dutchmen** Win 13-4 847 Ignored Jul 6th Motown Throwdown 2019
129 Kentucky Flying Circus Win 13-7 1455.97 Jul 6th Motown Throwdown 2019
157 BlackER Market Y Win 13-4 1342.49 Jul 6th Motown Throwdown 2019
137 Babe Win 13-8 1338.06 Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2019
125 Dynasty Win 13-12 1033.32 Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2019
30 Black Market I Loss 7-8 1410.38 Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2019
48 Cryptic Loss 9-11 1106.99 Aug 24th Indy Invite Club 2019
28 Nain Rouge Loss 7-13 988.54 Aug 24th Indy Invite Club 2019
64 Gaucho Loss 9-13 834.3 Aug 24th Indy Invite Club 2019
48 Cryptic Win 15-14 1481.2 Aug 25th Indy Invite Club 2019
28 Nain Rouge Loss 6-15 946.08 Aug 25th Indy Invite Club 2019
99 Black Market II Win 15-12 1352.9 Aug 25th Indy Invite Club 2019
179 Chimney Win 13-7 1143.22 Sep 7th East Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
28 Nain Rouge Loss 12-13 1421.08 Sep 7th East Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
23 CLE Smokestack Loss 9-13 1217.1 Sep 8th East Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
129 Kentucky Flying Circus Win 13-9 1317 Sep 8th East Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
137 Babe Win 13-10 1170.05 Sep 8th East Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
204 Red Imp.ala** Win 13-5 1031.21 Ignored Sep 8th East Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)