#81 Omen (18-14)

avg: 1138.86  •  sd: 61.12  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
242 Flying Piglet** Win 13-1 233.85 Ignored Jun 22nd SCINNY 2019
208 Red Imp.ala Win 13-8 901.71 Jun 22nd SCINNY 2019
133 Kentucky Flying Circus Win 13-5 1484.93 Jun 22nd SCINNY 2019
173 Hazard Win 13-7 1193.45 Jun 23rd SCINNY 2019
84 Black Lung Loss 7-15 525.55 Jun 23rd SCINNY 2019
136 Dynasty Win 13-8 1371.35 Jun 23rd SCINNY 2019
135 Enigma Win 13-8 1372.03 Jun 23rd SCINNY 2019
228 Flying Dutchmen** Win 13-4 821.39 Ignored Jul 6th Motown Throwdown 2019
164 BlackER Market Y Win 13-4 1311.11 Jul 6th Motown Throwdown 2019
133 Kentucky Flying Circus Win 13-7 1442.46 Jul 6th Motown Throwdown 2019
31 Black Market I Loss 7-8 1370.14 Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2019
146 Babe Win 13-8 1313.52 Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2019
136 Dynasty Win 13-12 1000.19 Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2019
58 Gaucho Loss 9-13 870.62 Aug 24th Indy Invite Club 2019
57 Cryptic Loss 9-11 1054.26 Aug 24th Indy Invite Club 2019
33 Nain Rouge Loss 7-13 921.27 Aug 24th Indy Invite Club 2019
111 Black Market II Win 15-12 1295.74 Aug 25th Indy Invite Club 2019
57 Cryptic Win 15-14 1428.47 Aug 25th Indy Invite Club 2019
33 Nain Rouge Loss 6-15 878.8 Aug 25th Indy Invite Club 2019
184 Chimney Win 13-7 1113.91 Sep 7th East Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
33 Nain Rouge Loss 12-13 1353.8 Sep 7th East Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
20 CLE Smokestack Loss 9-13 1244.23 Sep 8th East Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
146 Babe Win 13-10 1145.5 Sep 8th East Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
208 Red Imp.ala** Win 13-5 1005.55 Ignored Sep 8th East Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
133 Kentucky Flying Circus Win 13-9 1303.49 Sep 8th East Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
31 Black Market I Loss 8-11 1129.53 Sep 21st Great Lakes Mens Regional Championship 2019
21 Brickyard Loss 5-11 1043.19 Sep 21st Great Lakes Mens Regional Championship 2019
20 CLE Smokestack Loss 4-11 1062.79 Sep 21st Great Lakes Mens Regional Championship 2019
133 Kentucky Flying Circus Win 11-8 1250.54 Sep 21st Great Lakes Mens Regional Championship 2019
84 Black Lung Loss 7-12 605.04 Sep 22nd Great Lakes Mens Regional Championship 2019
5 Chicago Machine** Loss 4-13 1487.11 Ignored Sep 22nd Great Lakes Mens Regional Championship 2019
33 Nain Rouge Loss 9-11 1229.6 Sep 22nd Great Lakes Mens Regional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)