#3 PoNY (21-7)

avg: 2031.3  •  sd: 75.25  •  top 16/20: 99.7%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
18 Pittsburgh Temper Loss 9-11 1422.19 Jul 7th TCT Pro Elite Challenge 2018
9 HIGH FIVE Loss 8-13 1317.7 Jul 7th TCT Pro Elite Challenge 2018
8 Sub Zero Loss 9-13 1411.21 Jul 7th TCT Pro Elite Challenge 2018
5 Truck Stop Loss 9-12 1591.5 Jul 8th TCT Pro Elite Challenge 2018
25 Medicine Men Win 13-7 1963.11 Jul 8th TCT Pro Elite Challenge 2018
19 Guerrilla Win 13-7 2105.42 Jul 8th TCT Pro Elite Challenge 2018
1 Revolver Loss 9-15 1564.16 Aug 3rd 2018 US Open Club Championships
4 Ring of Fire Win 15-13 2207.91 Aug 4th 2018 US Open Club Championships
10 Doublewide Loss 12-15 1511.99 Aug 4th 2018 US Open Club Championships
5 Truck Stop Win 14-12 2157.82 Aug 4th 2018 US Open Club Championships
8 Sub Zero Win 14-8 2365.81 Aug 5th 2018 US Open Club Championships
7 Chicago Machine Win 12-11 1969.93 Sep 1st TCT Pro Championships 2018
13 Johnny Bravo Win 15-10 2230.06 Sep 1st TCT Pro Championships 2018
20 Patrol Win 15-10 1994.31 Sep 1st TCT Pro Championships 2018
4 Ring of Fire Win 15-14 2118.74 Sep 2nd TCT Pro Championships 2018
5 Truck Stop Win 14-10 2335.57 Sep 2nd TCT Pro Championships 2018
1 Revolver Win 15-12 2380.14 Sep 3rd TCT Pro Championships 2018
57 Shade** Win 15-4 1700.17 Ignored Sep 22nd Northeast Mens Regional Championship 2018
122 Baked Beans** Win 15-5 1302.46 Ignored Sep 22nd Northeast Mens Regional Championship 2018
29 Big Wrench Win 15-9 1893.33 Sep 22nd Northeast Mens Regional Championship 2018
77 Deathsquad** Win 15-3 1580.92 Ignored Sep 22nd Northeast Mens Regional Championship 2018
14 GOAT Win 15-11 2096.27 Sep 23rd Northeast Mens Regional Championship 2018
12 Rhino Slam Win 13-11 2008.51 Oct 18th USA Ultimate National Championships 2018
5 Truck Stop Win 15-9 2452.34 Oct 18th USA Ultimate National Championships 2018
13 Johnny Bravo Loss 12-14 1555.5 Oct 18th USA Ultimate National Championships 2018
7 Chicago Machine Win 13-11 2073.77 Oct 19th USA Ultimate National Championships 2018
2 Sockeye Win 12-11 2160.16 Oct 20th USA Ultimate National Championships 2018
1 Revolver Win 15-7 2679.65 Oct 21st USA Ultimate National Championships 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)