#163 One Night (12-15)

avg: 711.13  •  sd: 56.46  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
104 Burly Loss 11-15 644.77 Jul 6th AntlerLock 2019
225 Highlight Reel Win 13-7 792.08 Jul 6th AntlerLock 2019
241 defunCT Win 14-9 312.45 Jul 6th AntlerLock 2019
225 Highlight Reel Win 11-9 483.76 Jul 6th AntlerLock 2019
94 Log Jam Loss 5-15 477.67 Jul 7th AntlerLock 2019
95 Red Tide Loss 7-15 477.07 Jul 7th AntlerLock 2019
198 Madhouse Loss 8-10 214.42 Jul 20th Vacationland 2019
188 Thunder Boys Loss 6-11 -12.48 Jul 20th Vacationland 2019
112 Somerville BAG Loss 5-11 393.38 Jul 20th Vacationland 2019
157 Ender's Outcasts Win 11-7 1209.55 Jul 20th Vacationland 2019
204 Spring Break '93 Win 11-6 978.98 Jul 21st Vacationland 2019
95 Red Tide Loss 9-11 827.86 Jul 21st Vacationland 2019
- Neap Tide** Win 13-0 600 Ignored Jul 21st Vacationland 2019
94 Log Jam Loss 5-13 477.67 Aug 24th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
232 Bees** Win 13-0 703.93 Ignored Aug 24th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
139 Overcast Win 13-9 1261.03 Aug 24th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
95 Red Tide Loss 8-13 580.91 Aug 24th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
44 Shade Loss 8-12 968.04 Aug 25th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
129 JAWN Loss 4-13 302.71 Aug 25th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
51 Lantern** Loss 3-11 758.82 Ignored Sep 7th East New England Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
198 Madhouse Win 11-4 1077.09 Sep 7th East New England Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
188 Thunder Boys Win 9-6 952.78 Sep 7th East New England Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
66 Deathsquad Loss 5-7 914.17 Sep 7th East New England Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
95 Red Tide Loss 8-11 711.46 Sep 7th East New England Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
112 Somerville BAG Loss 9-12 648.02 Sep 8th East New England Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
186 Watch City Win 15-11 919.49 Sep 8th East New England Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
157 Ender's Outcasts Win 13-12 867.66 Sep 8th East New England Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)