#207 Villains (1-6)

avg: 599.94  •  sd: 56.24  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
146 Ronin Loss 9-11 702.29 Jun 24th Huntsville Huckfest
116 Atlanta Arson Loss 4-11 543.89 Jun 24th Huntsville Huckfest
129 Foxtrot Loss 7-11 576 Jun 24th Huntsville Huckfest
150 Nashville Mudcats Loss 5-11 326.2 Jun 24th Huntsville Huckfest
118 Raptor Loss 3-11 511.59 Jun 24th Huntsville Huckfest
124 Battleship Loss 8-11 695.31 Jun 25th Huntsville Huckfest
198 Capitol City Chaos Win 9-8 821.2 Jun 25th Huntsville Huckfest
**Blowout Eligible


The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)