#48 Cryptic (24-7)

avg: 1356.2  •  sd: 44.83  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
74 DeMo Win 13-11 1397.82 Jun 29th Spirit of the Plains 2019
102 THE BODY Win 13-12 1154.14 Jun 29th Spirit of the Plains 2019
34 Mad Men Win 12-11 1599.41 Jun 29th Spirit of the Plains 2019
60 Swans Loss 10-11 1146.27 Jun 30th Spirit of the Plains 2019
101 Imperial Win 8-6 1340.34 Jun 30th Spirit of the Plains 2019
56 Scythe Loss 8-12 846.9 Jun 30th Spirit of the Plains 2019
175 Milwaukee Revival** Win 13-5 1237.91 Ignored Aug 3rd Heavyweights 2019
204 Red Imp.ala Win 13-6 1031.21 Aug 3rd Heavyweights 2019
99 Black Market II Win 13-5 1652.4 Aug 3rd Heavyweights 2019
95 HouSE Win 13-8 1566.16 Aug 4th Heavyweights 2019
20 Yogosbo Loss 11-13 1504.19 Aug 4th Heavyweights 2019
73 ISO Atmo Win 13-10 1515.84 Aug 4th Heavyweights 2019
54 Battery Win 13-12 1432.49 Aug 4th Heavyweights 2019
41 MKE Win 13-11 1639.68 Aug 17th Cooler Classic 31
74 DeMo Win 15-14 1293.98 Aug 17th Cooler Classic 31
34 Mad Men Loss 14-15 1349.41 Aug 17th Cooler Classic 31
101 Imperial Win 11-4 1639.84 Aug 18th Cooler Classic 31
41 MKE Loss 9-10 1285.84 Aug 18th Cooler Classic 31
34 Mad Men Win 9-7 1753.74 Aug 18th Cooler Classic 31
64 Gaucho Win 12-11 1377.86 Aug 24th Indy Invite Club 2019
70 Omen Win 11-9 1451.73 Aug 24th Indy Invite Club 2019
28 Nain Rouge Win 13-11 1774.92 Aug 24th Indy Invite Club 2019
129 Kentucky Flying Circus Win 15-10 1352.04 Aug 25th Indy Invite Club 2019
70 Omen Loss 14-15 1077.52 Aug 25th Indy Invite Club 2019
64 Gaucho Win 15-13 1467.04 Aug 25th Indy Invite Club 2019
- Miner Magic Win 11-5 1068.02 Sep 7th West Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
130 Kansas City Smokestack Win 11-10 1021.64 Sep 7th West Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
174 Red Bat Win 11-5 1239.73 Sep 7th West Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
56 Scythe Loss 6-11 741.36 Sep 7th West Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
74 DeMo Win 15-12 1469.47 Sep 8th West Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
56 Scythe Win 16-14 1496.35 Sep 8th West Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)