#14 GOAT (18-5)

avg: 1715.11  •  sd: 116.05  •  top 16/20: 50%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
15 Chain Lightning Loss 9-13 1274.17 Aug 18th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2018
22 Voodoo Win 13-9 1923.04 Aug 18th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2018
9 HIGH FIVE Win 13-7 2371.39 Aug 18th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2018
17 SoCal Condors Loss 8-13 1184.86 Aug 19th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2018
16 Madison Club Loss 9-13 1273.95 Aug 19th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2018
142 Genny Lite** Win 13-3 1101.22 Ignored Aug 26th Sectional Sanction Upstate NY 2018
64 Overcast Win 13-7 1605.75 Aug 26th Sectional Sanction Upstate NY 2018
45 Mockingbird Win 13-6 1838.78 Aug 26th Sectional Sanction Upstate NY 2018
28 Phoenix Win 7-3 1979.92 Aug 26th Sectional Sanction Upstate NY 2018
45 Mockingbird Win 7-3 1838.78 Aug 26th Sectional Sanction Upstate NY 2018
- ESF Mighty Oaks** Win 15-2 768.32 Ignored Sep 8th Upstate New York Mens Sectional Championship 2018
142 Genny Lite** Win 15-3 1101.22 Ignored Sep 8th Upstate New York Mens Sectional Championship 2018
- Maverick** Win 15-3 1342.86 Ignored Sep 8th Upstate New York Mens Sectional Championship 2018
28 Phoenix Win 15-7 1979.92 Sep 8th Upstate New York Mens Sectional Championship 2018
96 Shrike** Win 15-2 1461.82 Ignored Sep 9th Upstate New York Mens Sectional Championship 2018
64 Overcast** Win 15-6 1648.22 Ignored Sep 9th Upstate New York Mens Sectional Championship 2018
28 Phoenix Win 12-11 1504.92 Sep 9th Upstate New York Mens Sectional Championship 2018
67 Red Circus** Win 15-3 1639.52 Ignored Sep 22nd Northeast Mens Regional Championship 2018
85 Pesterbug** Win 15-2 1530.2 Ignored Sep 22nd Northeast Mens Regional Championship 2018
28 Phoenix Win 15-6 1979.92 Sep 22nd Northeast Mens Regional Championship 2018
11 DiG Win 14-12 2018.2 Sep 22nd Northeast Mens Regional Championship 2018
3 PoNY Loss 11-15 1650.13 Sep 23rd Northeast Mens Regional Championship 2018
11 DiG Loss 10-15 1343.64 Sep 23rd Northeast Mens Regional Championship 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)