#224 Bird Patrol (4-15)

avg: 262.11  •  sd: 58.65  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
225 Flying Dutchmen Loss 13-14 122 Jun 22nd SCINNY 2019
185 A-Block Loss 13-15 339.32 Jun 22nd SCINNY 2019
137 Babe Loss 8-15 277.1 Jun 22nd SCINNY 2019
201 Flying Pig Loss 10-12 216.8 Jun 22nd SCINNY 2019
179 Chimney Loss 9-14 111.82 Jun 23rd SCINNY 2019
82 Black Lung** Loss 5-15 526.33 Ignored Jun 23rd SCINNY 2019
242 Flying Piglet Win 15-7 262.11 Jun 23rd SCINNY 2019
169 MomINtuM Loss 6-13 72.06 Aug 24th Indy Invite Club 2019
99 Black Market II** Loss 1-13 452.4 Ignored Aug 24th Indy Invite Club 2019
125 Dynasty Loss 6-13 308.32 Aug 24th Indy Invite Club 2019
169 MomINtuM Loss 8-15 107.25 Aug 25th Indy Invite Club 2019
149 Ditto A Loss 6-15 174.9 Aug 25th Indy Invite Club 2019
231 Black Market III Win 10-9 260.41 Aug 25th Indy Invite Club 2019
222 Nasty Girls Win 13-9 681.58 Sep 7th Central Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
47 Haymaker** Loss 2-13 761.42 Ignored Sep 7th Central Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
99 Black Market II** Loss 2-13 452.4 Ignored Sep 7th Central Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
30 Black Market I** Loss 4-13 935.38 Ignored Sep 7th Central Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
169 MomINtuM Loss 7-15 72.06 Sep 8th Central Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
231 Black Market III Win 15-11 516.57 Sep 8th Central Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)