#50 Colt (17-10)

avg: 1212.86  •  sd: 75.5  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
57 Shade Win 15-6 1700.17 Jun 23rd Boston Invite 2018
105 Bruises Win 15-11 1171.13 Jun 23rd Boston Invite 2018
29 Big Wrench Loss 9-15 862.36 Jun 23rd Boston Invite 2018
87 Westchester Magma Bears Win 15-8 1478.68 Jun 23rd Boston Invite 2018
34 Lost Boys Win 9-6 1727.76 Jun 24th Boston Invite 2018
62 Club M - Manic Win 13-12 1208.78 Jun 24th Boston Invite 2018
11 DiG Loss 4-15 1197.25 Jun 24th Boston Invite 2018
118 Adelphos Win 15-6 1318.38 Jul 14th 2018 Philadelphia Select Classic II
42 CITYWIDE Special Win 13-11 1494.03 Jul 14th 2018 Philadelphia Select Classic II
36 CLE Smokestack Loss 10-15 846.03 Jul 14th 2018 Philadelphia Select Classic II
54 Blueprint Win 13-12 1283.68 Jul 14th 2018 Philadelphia Select Classic II
68 John Doe Win 11-6 1585.89 Jul 15th 2018 Philadelphia Select Classic II
42 CITYWIDE Special Loss 7-13 707.66 Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2018
34 Lost Boys Loss 9-13 890.62 Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2018
25 Medicine Men Loss 8-13 909.42 Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2018
52 Oakgrove Boys Loss 8-11 821.32 Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2018
42 CITYWIDE Special Loss 8-13 769.03 Aug 12th Chesapeake Open 2018
36 CLE Smokestack Win 9-7 1578.97 Aug 12th Chesapeake Open 2018
30 Garden State Ultimate Win 13-12 1475.55 Aug 12th Chesapeake Open 2018
- Black Knights** Win 15-3 1059.46 Ignored Sep 8th Metro New York Mens Sectional Championship 2018
87 Westchester Magma Bears Win 15-10 1367.48 Sep 8th Metro New York Mens Sectional Championship 2018
- Spring Break '93** Win 15-4 1042.82 Ignored Sep 8th Metro New York Mens Sectional Championship 2018
57 Shade Win 15-9 1615.65 Sep 9th Metro New York Mens Sectional Championship 2018
54 Blueprint Win 14-11 1472.02 Sep 22nd Northeast Mens Regional Championship 2018
94 Red Tide Win 15-11 1262.69 Sep 22nd Northeast Mens Regional Championship 2018
11 DiG Loss 5-15 1197.25 Sep 22nd Northeast Mens Regional Championship 2018
77 Deathsquad Loss 11-13 752.08 Sep 22nd Northeast Mens Regional Championship 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)