#129 Kentucky Flying Circus (17-16)

avg: 898.44  •  sd: 57.54  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
172 Hazard Win 15-6 1256.28 Jun 22nd SCINNY 2019
204 Red Imp.ala Win 13-10 759.35 Jun 22nd SCINNY 2019
70 Omen Loss 5-13 602.52 Jun 22nd SCINNY 2019
242 Flying Piglet** Win 13-2 262.11 Ignored Jun 23rd SCINNY 2019
125 Dynasty Win 13-5 1508.32 Jun 23rd SCINNY 2019
128 Enigma Win 13-10 1227.27 Jun 23rd SCINNY 2019
137 Babe Loss 11-13 613.06 Jun 23rd SCINNY 2019
225 Flying Dutchmen** Win 13-2 847 Ignored Jul 6th Motown Throwdown 2019
70 Omen Loss 7-13 644.99 Jul 6th Motown Throwdown 2019
157 BlackER Market Y Loss 6-8 442 Jul 6th Motown Throwdown 2019
179 Chimney Win 13-2 1185.69 Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2019
225 Flying Dutchmen** Win 13-3 847 Ignored Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2019
118 CaSTLe Loss 9-10 828.91 Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2019
204 Red Imp.ala Loss 7-8 306.21 Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2019
95 HouSE Loss 8-12 628.84 Aug 3rd Heavyweights 2019
102 THE BODY Win 13-8 1525.3 Aug 3rd Heavyweights 2019
240 Ditto B** Win 13-3 483.84 Ignored Aug 3rd Heavyweights 2019
82 Black Lung Loss 9-10 1001.33 Aug 4th Heavyweights 2019
99 Black Market II Loss 10-11 927.4 Aug 4th Heavyweights 2019
100 Timber Loss 9-13 622.91 Aug 4th Heavyweights 2019
128 Enigma Loss 10-11 774.13 Aug 24th Indy Invite Club 2019
149 Ditto A Win 11-8 1140.51 Aug 24th Indy Invite Club 2019
231 Black Market III** Win 13-2 735.41 Ignored Aug 24th Indy Invite Club 2019
48 Cryptic Loss 10-15 902.6 Aug 25th Indy Invite Club 2019
99 Black Market II Loss 7-15 452.4 Aug 25th Indy Invite Club 2019
23 CLE Smokestack** Loss 3-11 1035.66 Ignored Sep 7th East Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
191 Midnight Meat Train Win 11-8 892.01 Sep 7th East Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
128 Enigma Win 11-8 1264.73 Sep 7th East Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
200 NEO Win 11-8 829.09 Sep 7th East Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
225 Flying Dutchmen** Win 11-4 847 Ignored Sep 8th East Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
82 Black Lung Win 11-8 1491.94 Sep 8th East Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
70 Omen Loss 9-13 783.96 Sep 8th East Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
82 Black Lung Loss 6-13 526.33 Sep 8th East Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)