#133 Kentucky Flying Circus (17-20)

avg: 884.93  •  sd: 57.54  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
173 Hazard Win 15-6 1235.92 Jun 22nd SCINNY 2019
81 Omen Loss 5-13 538.86 Jun 22nd SCINNY 2019
208 Red Imp.ala Win 13-10 733.69 Jun 22nd SCINNY 2019
146 Babe Loss 11-13 588.52 Jun 23rd SCINNY 2019
136 Dynasty Win 13-5 1475.19 Jun 23rd SCINNY 2019
135 Enigma Win 13-10 1204.01 Jun 23rd SCINNY 2019
242 Flying Piglet** Win 13-2 233.85 Ignored Jun 23rd SCINNY 2019
228 Flying Dutchmen** Win 13-2 821.39 Ignored Jul 6th Motown Throwdown 2019
164 BlackER Market Y Loss 6-8 410.62 Jul 6th Motown Throwdown 2019
81 Omen Loss 7-13 581.33 Jul 6th Motown Throwdown 2019
228 Flying Dutchmen** Win 13-3 821.39 Ignored Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2019
123 CaSTLe Loss 9-10 798.61 Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2019
184 Chimney Win 13-2 1156.37 Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2019
208 Red Imp.ala Loss 7-8 280.55 Jul 7th Motown Throwdown 2019
97 THE BODY Win 13-8 1545.84 Aug 3rd Heavyweights 2019
240 Ditto B** Win 13-3 456.15 Ignored Aug 3rd Heavyweights 2019
96 HouSE Loss 8-12 611.33 Aug 3rd Heavyweights 2019
84 Black Lung Loss 9-10 1000.55 Aug 4th Heavyweights 2019
111 Black Market II Loss 10-11 870.25 Aug 4th Heavyweights 2019
116 Timber Loss 9-13 550.27 Aug 4th Heavyweights 2019
231 Black Market III** Win 13-2 706.25 Ignored Aug 24th Indy Invite Club 2019
156 Ditto A Win 11-8 1111.36 Aug 24th Indy Invite Club 2019
135 Enigma Loss 10-11 750.87 Aug 24th Indy Invite Club 2019
111 Black Market II Loss 7-15 395.25 Aug 25th Indy Invite Club 2019
57 Cryptic Loss 10-15 849.87 Aug 25th Indy Invite Club 2019
193 Midnight Meat Train Win 11-8 870.69 Sep 7th East Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
20 CLE Smokestack** Loss 3-11 1062.79 Ignored Sep 7th East Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
200 NEO Win 11-8 821.51 Sep 7th East Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
135 Enigma Win 11-8 1241.48 Sep 7th East Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
228 Flying Dutchmen** Win 11-4 821.39 Ignored Sep 8th East Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
84 Black Lung Win 11-8 1491.16 Sep 8th East Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
84 Black Lung Loss 6-13 525.55 Sep 8th East Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
81 Omen Loss 9-13 720.3 Sep 8th East Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
31 Black Market I Loss 5-11 895.14 Sep 21st Great Lakes Mens Regional Championship 2019
20 CLE Smokestack Loss 6-11 1116.1 Sep 21st Great Lakes Mens Regional Championship 2019
81 Omen Loss 8-11 773.26 Sep 21st Great Lakes Mens Regional Championship 2019
21 Brickyard Loss 5-11 1043.19 Sep 22nd Great Lakes Mens Regional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)