#21 Prairie Fire (22-9)

avg: 1508.18  •  sd: 77.32  •  top 16/20: 0.2%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
95 Scythe** Win 13-3 1479.07 Ignored Jun 16th Fort Collins Summer Solstice 2018
162 Colorado Cutthroat** Win 13-5 783.8 Ignored Jun 16th Fort Collins Summer Solstice 2018
130 Syndicate** Win 13-2 1230.98 Ignored Jun 16th Fort Collins Summer Solstice 2018
- Johnny Encore Win 13-8 1716.18 Jun 16th Fort Collins Summer Solstice 2018
- Johnny Walker Win 15-9 1592.97 Jun 17th Fort Collins Summer Solstice 2018
24 Inception Win 15-10 1874.94 Jun 17th Fort Collins Summer Solstice 2018
12 Rhino Slam Loss 4-13 1179.67 Jul 27th TCT Select Flight Invite 2018
31 Black Market Win 13-8 1842.89 Jul 28th TCT Select Flight Invite 2018
22 Voodoo Win 13-8 2000.63 Jul 28th TCT Select Flight Invite 2018
89 The Killjoys Win 13-8 1399.24 Jul 28th TCT Select Flight Invite 2018
6 Furious George Loss 8-12 1427.96 Jul 29th TCT Select Flight Invite 2018
35 Nitro Win 13-8 1798.41 Jul 29th TCT Select Flight Invite 2018
19 Guerrilla Loss 10-12 1309.77 Jul 29th TCT Select Flight Invite 2018
7 Chicago Machine Loss 5-13 1244.93 Aug 18th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2018
16 Madison Club Loss 9-13 1273.95 Aug 18th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2018
45 Mockingbird Win 13-7 1796.31 Aug 18th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2018
20 Patrol Loss 7-13 983.17 Aug 19th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2018
24 Inception Loss 11-13 1192.5 Aug 19th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2018
95 Scythe** Win 13-5 1479.07 Ignored Sep 15th West Plains Mens Sectional Championship 2018
164 Fifty-Fifty** Win 13-2 737.74 Ignored Sep 15th West Plains Mens Sectional Championship 2018
- Miner Magic** Win 13-4 1028.88 Ignored Sep 15th West Plains Mens Sectional Championship 2018
53 Illusion Win 13-9 1592.65 Sep 15th West Plains Mens Sectional Championship 2018
60 DeMo Win 15-11 1477.74 Sep 16th West Plains Mens Sectional Championship 2018
95 Scythe Win 13-7 1436.6 Sep 22nd North Central Mens Regional Championship 2018
39 Mad Men Win 12-8 1720.12 Sep 22nd North Central Mens Regional Championship 2018
60 DeMo Win 13-7 1654.11 Sep 22nd North Central Mens Regional Championship 2018
8 Sub Zero Loss 10-13 1501.63 Sep 22nd North Central Mens Regional Championship 2018
32 General Strike Win 13-11 1575.34 Sep 23rd North Central Mens Regional Championship 2018
39 Mad Men Win 13-11 1507.81 Sep 23rd North Central Mens Regional Championship 2018
16 Madison Club Loss 9-13 1273.95 Sep 23rd North Central Mens Regional Championship 2018
72 Swans Win 13-7 1574.39 Sep 23rd North Central Mens Regional Championship 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)