#23 CLE Smokestack (18-2)

avg: 1635.66  •  sd: 74.35  •  top 16/20: 1.5%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
51 Turbine Win 15-5 1932.69 Jul 13th TCT Select Flight Invite West 2019
72 Sawtooth Win 15-4 1788.67 Jul 13th TCT Select Flight Invite West 2019
29 Clutch Win 14-11 1851.78 Jul 14th TCT Select Flight Invite West 2019
53 Ghost Train Win 13-10 1639 Jul 14th TCT Select Flight Invite West 2019
47 Haymaker Win 13-8 1857.58 Jul 14th TCT Select Flight Invite West 2019
51 Turbine Win 13-7 1890.22 Jul 14th TCT Select Flight Invite West 2019
59 Big Wrench Win 13-8 1767.61 Jul 27th TCT Select Flight Invite East 2019
25 General Strike Win 13-8 2061.05 Jul 27th TCT Select Flight Invite East 2019
67 UpRoar Win 13-10 1540.47 Jul 27th TCT Select Flight Invite East 2019
57 Red Circus Win 13-7 1840.22 Jul 28th TCT Select Flight Invite East 2019
13 Furious George Loss 7-13 1322.3 Jul 28th TCT Select Flight Invite East 2019
25 General Strike Win 13-10 1893.03 Jul 28th TCT Select Flight Invite East 2019
129 Kentucky Flying Circus** Win 11-3 1498.44 Ignored Sep 7th East Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
82 Black Lung Win 11-8 1491.94 Sep 7th East Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
191 Midnight Meat Train** Win 11-2 1126.4 Ignored Sep 7th East Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
225 Flying Dutchmen** Win 11-0 847 Ignored Sep 7th East Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
128 Enigma** Win 11-4 1499.13 Ignored Sep 8th East Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
200 NEO Win 11-5 1063.49 Sep 8th East Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
28 Nain Rouge Loss 9-13 1127.51 Sep 8th East Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
70 Omen Win 13-9 1621.09 Sep 8th East Plains Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)