#15 Chain Lightning (22-8)

avg: 1692.74  •  sd: 140.9  •  top 16/20: 75.4%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
97 Rush Hour** Win 13-4 1451.18 Ignored Jul 21st Club Terminus 2018
104 Black Lung Win 13-6 1408.72 Jul 21st Club Terminus 2018
165 War Machine** Win 13-1 703.5 Ignored Jul 21st Club Terminus 2018
41 Coastal Empire Win 13-7 1827.87 Jul 22nd Club Terminus 2018
34 Lost Boys Win 13-6 1909.19 Jul 22nd Club Terminus 2018
23 Freaks Win 12-11 1626.12 Jul 22nd Club Terminus 2018
9 HIGH FIVE Loss 10-13 1485.71 Aug 18th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2018
14 GOAT Win 13-9 2133.67 Aug 18th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2018
22 Voodoo Win 13-7 2062.01 Aug 18th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2018
18 Pittsburgh Temper Win 12-7 2191.91 Aug 19th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2018
7 Chicago Machine Loss 10-13 1516.79 Aug 19th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2018
97 Rush Hour Win 13-7 1408.71 Sep 8th East Coast Mens Sectional Championship 2018
66 Bullet Win 12-6 1620.9 Sep 8th East Coast Mens Sectional Championship 2018
41 Coastal Empire Win 12-8 1711.49 Sep 8th East Coast Mens Sectional Championship 2018
160 Duel** Win 13-2 825.03 Ignored Sep 8th East Coast Mens Sectional Championship 2018
34 Lost Boys Win 12-11 1434.19 Sep 9th East Coast Mens Sectional Championship 2018
23 Freaks Win 11-9 1750.32 Sep 9th East Coast Mens Sectional Championship 2018
61 Tanasi Win 13-5 1695.92 Sep 22nd Southeast Mens Regional Championship 2018
128 Vicious Cycle Win 13-7 1205.63 Sep 22nd Southeast Mens Regional Championship 2018
34 Lost Boys Win 13-8 1805.35 Sep 22nd Southeast Mens Regional Championship 2018
71 UpRoar Win 13-8 1519.37 Sep 22nd Southeast Mens Regional Championship 2018
4 Ring of Fire Loss 11-15 1612.57 Sep 23rd Southeast Mens Regional Championship 2018
23 Freaks Win 15-10 1954.72 Sep 23rd Southeast Mens Regional Championship 2018
4 Ring of Fire Loss 13-15 1779.56 Oct 18th USA Ultimate National Championships 2018
6 Furious George Loss 12-14 1648.16 Oct 18th USA Ultimate National Championships 2018
7 Chicago Machine Loss 7-15 1244.93 Oct 18th USA Ultimate National Championships 2018
12 Rhino Slam Loss 13-15 1565.49 Oct 19th USA Ultimate National Championships 2018
16 Madison Club Win 15-10 2146.12 Oct 19th USA Ultimate National Championships 2018
13 Johnny Bravo Loss 14-15 1651.46 Oct 19th USA Ultimate National Championships 2018
11 DiG Win 13-12 1922.25 Oct 20th USA Ultimate National Championships 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)