#69 Gamble (28-11)

avg: 1033.45  •  sd: 51.35  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
147 DUCS** Win 13-0 1011.7 Ignored Jun 30th Texas Two Finger 2018
- Texas Two Step Win 13-2 1057.35 Jun 30th Texas Two Finger 2018
79 Papa Bear Loss 9-10 834.27 Jun 30th Texas Two Finger 2018
110 Dreadnought Win 13-11 998.22 Jul 1st Texas Two Finger 2018
84 Gaucho Win 14-10 1337.99 Jul 1st Texas Two Finger 2018
43 Clutch Loss 10-15 801.12 Jul 1st Texas Two Finger 2018
12 Rhino Slam Loss 8-13 1283.51 Jul 28th TCT Select Flight Invite 2018
63 Sawtooth Win 13-11 1285.4 Jul 28th TCT Select Flight Invite 2018
39 Mad Men Loss 4-13 678.97 Jul 28th TCT Select Flight Invite 2018
89 The Killjoys Win 13-11 1131.92 Jul 29th TCT Select Flight Invite 2018
88 PowderHogs Win 13-4 1508.48 Jul 29th TCT Select Flight Invite 2018
82 Riverside Loss 9-13 525.84 Aug 4th PBJ 2018
151 Riverside Messengers-B** Win 13-4 935.77 Ignored Aug 4th PBJ 2018
115 Rougaroux Loss 10-11 629.42 Aug 4th PBJ 2018
147 DUCS Win 13-6 1011.7 Aug 4th PBJ 2018
141 DUPlex Win 15-5 1117.02 Aug 5th PBJ 2018
150 The Bayou Boys Win 13-8 837.41 Aug 5th PBJ 2018
84 Gaucho Win 13-10 1267.43 Aug 5th PBJ 2018
151 Riverside Messengers-B** Win 13-2 935.77 Ignored Aug 18th Riverside Classic 2018
150 The Bayou Boys** Win 13-5 941.25 Ignored Aug 18th Riverside Classic 2018
166 Surrillic Audovice Win 13-6 682.76 Aug 18th Riverside Classic 2018
79 Papa Bear Win 13-10 1287.41 Aug 18th Riverside Classic 2018
82 Riverside Win 13-9 1362.97 Aug 19th Riverside Classic 2018
147 DUCS Win 14-8 947.74 Aug 19th Riverside Classic 2018
84 Gaucho Win 11-10 1064.29 Aug 19th Riverside Classic 2018
82 Riverside Win 11-6 1491.1 Sep 8th Texas Mens Sectional Championship 2018
- Shrike Cutters** Win 11-4 705.92 Ignored Sep 8th Texas Mens Sectional Championship 2018
143 Foxtrot Win 11-4 1095.5 Sep 8th Texas Mens Sectional Championship 2018
43 Clutch Loss 5-8 801.12 Sep 8th Texas Mens Sectional Championship 2018
147 DUCS** Win 11-1 1011.7 Ignored Sep 9th Texas Mens Sectional Championship 2018
129 Prime Win 8-7 769.69 Sep 9th Texas Mens Sectional Championship 2018
84 Gaucho Loss 10-11 814.29 Sep 9th Texas Mens Sectional Championship 2018
79 Papa Bear Win 11-6 1505.96 Sep 9th Texas Mens Sectional Championship 2018
82 Riverside Win 15-13 1158.58 Sep 22nd South Central Mens Regional Championship 2018
147 DUCS Win 13-6 1011.7 Sep 22nd South Central Mens Regional Championship 2018
83 Supercell Win 13-10 1268.77 Sep 22nd South Central Mens Regional Championship 2018
13 Johnny Bravo** Loss 3-13 1176.46 Ignored Sep 22nd South Central Mens Regional Championship 2018
80 ISO Atmo Loss 15-16 832.83 Sep 23rd South Central Mens Regional Championship 2018
79 Papa Bear Loss 12-15 658.78 Sep 23rd South Central Mens Regional Championship 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)