#199 Winc City Fog of War (3-13)

avg: 464.6  •  sd: 64.12  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
111 Fathom Loss 5-10 400.02 Jul 20th Stonewalled 2019
135 Oakgrove Boys Loss 5-11 266.96 Jul 20th Stonewalled 2019
26 Blueprint** Loss 3-11 950.07 Ignored Jul 20th Stonewalled 2019
213 Hail Mary Win 13-12 494.69 Jul 21st Stonewalled 2019
131 Slag Dump Loss 7-11 425.76 Jul 21st Stonewalled 2019
132 JAWN Loss 8-12 445.41 Aug 10th Nuccis Cup 2019
171 Adelphos Win 13-9 1075.37 Aug 10th Nuccis Cup 2019
152 Watchdogs Loss 9-13 344.33 Aug 10th Nuccis Cup 2019
98 Town Hall Stars Loss 5-13 457.04 Aug 10th Nuccis Cup 2019
96 Magma Bears Loss 9-15 552.72 Aug 11th Nuccis Cup 2019
211 Bearproof Win 15-10 845.08 Aug 11th Nuccis Cup 2019
213 Hail Mary Loss 10-13 41.54 Sep 7th Capital Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
107 John Doe Loss 7-13 449.41 Sep 7th Capital Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
135 Oakgrove Boys Loss 6-13 266.96 Sep 7th Capital Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
111 Fathom Loss 7-13 416.39 Sep 8th Capital Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
75 Richmond Floodwall Loss 6-13 565.17 Sep 8th Capital Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)