#95 Red Tide (20-14)

avg: 1077.07  •  sd: 58.57  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
17 Sprout Loss 7-15 1167.5 Jun 22nd Boston Invite 2019
44 Shade Loss 9-15 893.71 Jun 22nd Boston Invite 2019
141 Regiment Loss 12-13 714.81 Jun 22nd Boston Invite 2019
125 Sherbrooke Gentlemen's Club Win 15-3 1513.33 Jun 23rd Boston Invite 2019
66 Deathsquad Win 15-7 1842.32 Jun 23rd Boston Invite 2019
54 Red Circus Win 11-9 1574.95 Jun 23rd Boston Invite 2019
94 Log Jam Win 15-11 1458.83 Jul 6th AntlerLock 2019
62 Big Wrench Loss 10-15 823.03 Jul 6th AntlerLock 2019
17 Sprout Loss 7-15 1167.5 Jul 6th AntlerLock 2019
104 Burly Win 15-11 1407.1 Jul 7th AntlerLock 2019
62 Big Wrench Loss 9-11 1027.43 Jul 7th AntlerLock 2019
163 One Night Win 15-7 1311.13 Jul 7th AntlerLock 2019
198 Madhouse Win 11-5 1077.09 Jul 20th Vacationland 2019
188 Thunder Boys Win 9-8 659.21 Jul 20th Vacationland 2019
112 Somerville BAG Win 11-5 1593.38 Jul 20th Vacationland 2019
157 Ender's Outcasts Win 11-5 1342.66 Jul 20th Vacationland 2019
112 Somerville BAG Loss 11-13 764.54 Jul 21st Vacationland 2019
163 One Night Win 11-9 960.34 Jul 21st Vacationland 2019
66 Deathsquad Loss 7-13 684.78 Jul 21st Vacationland 2019
94 Log Jam Win 13-11 1306.51 Aug 24th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
232 Bees** Win 13-0 703.93 Ignored Aug 24th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
163 One Night Win 13-8 1207.29 Aug 24th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
139 Overcast Win 12-5 1442.47 Aug 24th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
51 Lantern Loss 11-13 1129.98 Aug 25th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
94 Log Jam Loss 12-13 952.67 Aug 25th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
92 Town Hall Stars Win 11-7 1558.01 Aug 25th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
51 Lantern Loss 6-7 1233.82 Sep 7th East New England Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
198 Madhouse Win 12-10 715.21 Sep 7th East New England Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
188 Thunder Boys Win 11-10 659.21 Sep 7th East New England Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
163 One Night Win 11-8 1076.74 Sep 7th East New England Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
66 Deathsquad Loss 3-11 642.32 Sep 7th East New England Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
62 Big Wrench Loss 6-15 676.64 Sep 8th East New England Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
112 Somerville BAG Loss 13-15 779.2 Sep 8th East New England Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
- Maine Win 15-6 1077.07 Oct 26th 31st Annual Red Tide Ultimate Clambake
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)