#159 Ender's Outcasts (12-15)

avg: 736.52  •  sd: 53.19  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
77 Log Jam Loss 10-13 826.29 Jun 22nd Boston Invite 2019
108 Somerville BAG Loss 8-9 872.97 Jun 22nd Boston Invite 2019
188 Thunder Boys Win 15-9 1046.34 Jun 22nd Boston Invite 2019
153 BUDA U20B Win 11-8 1127.23 Jun 22nd Boston Invite 2019
181 Helots Win 12-7 1093.37 Jun 23rd Boston Invite 2019
143 Shrike Loss 10-14 408.38 Jun 23rd Boston Invite 2019
206 Spring Break '93 Win 15-4 1027.19 Jun 23rd Boston Invite 2019
189 Watch City Win 15-14 655.14 Jun 23rd Boston Invite 2019
197 Madhouse Win 11-6 1022.84 Jul 20th Vacationland 2019
108 Somerville BAG Loss 8-11 632.36 Jul 20th Vacationland 2019
92 Red Tide Loss 5-11 480.32 Jul 20th Vacationland 2019
163 One Night Loss 7-11 242.44 Jul 20th Vacationland 2019
188 Thunder Boys Win 11-6 1077.55 Jul 21st Vacationland 2019
164 Rising Tide U20B Win 10-9 823.52 Jul 21st Vacationland 2019
103 Burly Loss 9-13 609.82 Jul 21st Vacationland 2019
241 defunCT** Win 13-1 436.29 Ignored Aug 24th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
112 Genny The Boys Loss 3-13 371.58 Aug 24th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
44 Lantern Loss 7-13 821.82 Aug 24th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
178 Bomb Squad Loss 9-11 373.41 Aug 24th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
148 Overcast Loss 8-12 336.06 Aug 25th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
200 NEO Win 13-7 1021.02 Aug 25th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
108 Somerville BAG Win 10-8 1260.63 Sep 7th East New England Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
59 Big Wrench Loss 3-11 671.45 Sep 7th East New England Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
189 Watch City Win 9-8 655.14 Sep 7th East New England Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
57 Red Circus Loss 6-13 682.69 Sep 7th East New England Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
68 Deathsquad Loss 9-13 790.7 Sep 8th East New England Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
163 One Night Loss 12-13 584.33 Sep 8th East New England Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)