#94 Log Jam (19-12)

avg: 1077.67  •  sd: 59.74  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
112 Somerville BAG Win 15-13 1207.56 Jun 22nd Boston Invite 2019
157 Ender's Outcasts Win 13-10 1070.8 Jun 22nd Boston Invite 2019
154 BUDA U20B Win 14-7 1335.49 Jun 22nd Boston Invite 2019
188 Thunder Boys Win 15-3 1134.21 Jun 22nd Boston Invite 2019
87 Magma Bears Win 15-8 1670.2 Jun 23rd Boston Invite 2019
141 Regiment Win 15-6 1439.81 Jun 23rd Boston Invite 2019
62 Big Wrench Win 12-11 1401.64 Jul 6th AntlerLock 2019
17 Sprout** Loss 3-15 1167.5 Ignored Jul 6th AntlerLock 2019
95 Red Tide Loss 11-15 695.91 Jul 6th AntlerLock 2019
241 defunCT** Win 14-3 438.58 Ignored Jul 6th AntlerLock 2019
163 One Night Win 15-5 1311.13 Jul 7th AntlerLock 2019
104 Burly Loss 10-14 627.23 Jul 7th AntlerLock 2019
232 Bees** Win 13-0 703.93 Ignored Aug 24th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
139 Overcast Win 13-8 1338.63 Aug 24th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
163 One Night Win 13-5 1311.13 Aug 24th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
95 Red Tide Loss 11-13 848.23 Aug 24th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
121 Genny The Boys Win 11-8 1295.28 Aug 25th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
44 Shade Loss 6-10 913.03 Aug 25th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
95 Red Tide Win 13-12 1202.07 Aug 25th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
204 Spring Break '93** Win 13-3 1032.28 Ignored Sep 7th Metro New York Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
- White Sauce Hot Sauce Win 13-6 1225.79 Sep 7th Metro New York Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
121 Genny The Boys Win 11-8 1295.28 Sep 7th Metro New York Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
87 Magma Bears Win 14-9 1579.25 Sep 7th Metro New York Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
35 Blueprint Loss 5-14 877.19 Sep 8th Metro New York Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
121 Genny The Boys Win 11-10 1054.67 Sep 8th Metro New York Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
87 Magma Bears Loss 10-15 651.78 Sep 8th Metro New York Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
27 Phoenix Loss 6-13 927.32 Sep 21st Northeast Club Mens Regional Championship 2019
10 GOAT** Loss 3-13 1281 Ignored Sep 21st Northeast Club Mens Regional Championship 2019
87 Magma Bears Loss 7-12 584.88 Sep 21st Northeast Club Mens Regional Championship 2019
51 Lantern Loss 8-13 862.66 Sep 22nd Northeast Club Mens Regional Championship 2019
112 Somerville BAG Loss 13-14 868.38 Sep 22nd Northeast Club Mens Regional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)