#102 H.O.G. Ultimate (18-20)

avg: 827.51  •  sd: 52.97  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
66 Bullet Win 12-11 1166.59 Jun 16th ATL Classic 2018
71 UpRoar Loss 10-12 785.09 Jun 16th ATL Classic 2018
165 War Machine Win 13-7 661.03 Jun 16th ATL Classic 2018
145 Rampage Win 12-10 673.97 Jun 16th ATL Classic 2018
44 El Niño Loss 9-12 899.64 Jun 17th ATL Classic 2018
108 Swamp Horse Win 13-11 1000.29 Jun 17th ATL Classic 2018
- ATLiens Loss 7-10 408.7 Jun 17th ATL Classic 2018
101 Memphis Belle Win 7-6 954.87 Jul 7th Huckfest 2018
145 Rampage Win 13-6 1035.85 Jul 7th Huckfest 2018
- Nashvillians Win 13-4 971.51 Jul 7th Huckfest 2018
- Austin Amigos Win 13-4 942.14 Jul 7th Huckfest 2018
115 Rougaroux Win 11-8 1120.03 Jul 8th Huckfest 2018
98 Southern Hospitality Loss 10-12 610.92 Jul 8th Huckfest 2018
61 Tanasi Loss 5-13 495.92 Jul 8th Huckfest 2018
160 Duel** Win 13-3 825.03 Ignored Aug 18th Trestlemania III
71 UpRoar Loss 8-13 527.05 Aug 18th Trestlemania III
41 Coastal Empire Loss 4-13 670.34 Aug 18th Trestlemania III
145 Rampage Win 13-7 993.38 Aug 18th Trestlemania III
104 Black Lung Loss 11-13 579.88 Aug 19th Trestlemania III
41 Coastal Empire Loss 9-13 851.77 Aug 19th Trestlemania III
108 Swamp Horse Win 10-9 896.45 Aug 19th Trestlemania III
97 Rush Hour Loss 6-10 355.02 Aug 25th Rush Hour Round Robin 2018
107 BaNC Win 10-8 1038.3 Aug 25th Rush Hour Round Robin 2018
66 Bullet Win 13-9 1460.15 Aug 25th Rush Hour Round Robin 2018
98 Southern Hospitality Loss 7-12 328.54 Aug 25th Rush Hour Round Robin 2018
34 Lost Boys Loss 6-13 709.19 Aug 26th Rush Hour Round Robin 2018
133 Holy City Heathens Win 11-10 731.4 Aug 26th Rush Hour Round Robin 2018
23 Freaks** Loss 5-13 901.12 Ignored Sep 8th East Coast Mens Sectional Championship 2018
34 Lost Boys Loss 7-11 842.3 Sep 8th East Coast Mens Sectional Championship 2018
61 Tanasi Loss 7-9 816.58 Sep 8th East Coast Mens Sectional Championship 2018
133 Holy City Heathens Win 12-6 1185.71 Sep 8th East Coast Mens Sectional Championship 2018
97 Rush Hour Win 9-6 1269.74 Sep 9th East Coast Mens Sectional Championship 2018
66 Bullet Loss 7-11 574.69 Sep 9th East Coast Mens Sectional Championship 2018
44 El Niño Loss 8-12 803.85 Sep 22nd Southeast Mens Regional Championship 2018
37 Brickhouse Loss 7-13 730.68 Sep 22nd Southeast Mens Regional Championship 2018
23 Freaks** Loss 2-13 901.12 Ignored Sep 22nd Southeast Mens Regional Championship 2018
128 Vicious Cycle Win 15-10 1101.7 Sep 23rd Southeast Mens Regional Championship 2018
75 Omen Loss 7-9 713.41 Sep 23rd Southeast Mens Regional Championship 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)