#49 El Niño (18-7)

avg: 1347.98  •  sd: 53.89  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
106 H.O.G. Ultimate Win 11-6 1553.82 Jun 15th ATL Classic 2019
66 Ironmen Win 12-10 1466.28 Jun 15th ATL Classic 2019
115 baNC Win 13-6 1562.39 Jun 15th ATL Classic 2019
202 War Machine** Win 13-4 1036.17 Ignored Jun 15th ATL Classic 2019
33 Freaks Win 12-11 1624.59 Jun 16th ATL Classic 2019
86 ATLiens Win 12-11 1239.94 Jun 16th ATL Classic 2019
53 Ghost Train Win 14-13 1435.85 Jul 13th TCT Select Flight Invite West 2019
73 ISO Atmo Win 14-9 1661.57 Jul 13th TCT Select Flight Invite West 2019
29 Clutch Loss 11-12 1413.44 Jul 14th TCT Select Flight Invite West 2019
53 Ghost Train Win 12-11 1435.85 Jul 14th TCT Select Flight Invite West 2019
47 Haymaker Win 10-9 1486.42 Jul 14th TCT Select Flight Invite West 2019
51 Turbine Loss 9-11 1083.48 Jul 14th TCT Select Flight Invite West 2019
43 CITYWIDE Special Loss 7-12 881.43 Aug 10th Chesapeake Open 2019
27 H.I.P Loss 9-13 1129.99 Aug 10th Chesapeake Open 2019
37 Lost Boys Loss 9-13 1042.52 Aug 10th Chesapeake Open 2019
26 Blueprint Win 13-7 2107.6 Aug 10th Chesapeake Open 2019
59 Big Wrench Loss 11-12 1146.45 Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2019
75 Richmond Floodwall Win 10-8 1427.83 Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2019
135 Oakgrove Boys Win 15-5 1466.96 Aug 11th Chesapeake Open 2019
140 Space Coast Ultimate Win 13-9 1252.22 Sep 7th Florida Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
113 Omen Win 11-8 1332.44 Sep 7th Florida Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
217 Tyranny** Win 13-2 923.37 Ignored Sep 7th Florida Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
190 UpRoar Claws Win 13-6 1129.12 Sep 7th Florida Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
133 Vicious Cycle Win 15-5 1481.97 Sep 8th Florida Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
67 UpRoar Loss 14-15 1087.32 Sep 8th Florida Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)