#53 Illusion (16-17)

avg: 1174.08  •  sd: 66.42  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
31 Black Market Loss 9-13 928.16 Jun 30th Spirit of the Plains 2018
32 General Strike Loss 7-13 788.97 Jun 30th Spirit of the Plains 2018
39 Mad Men Win 14-13 1403.97 Jun 30th Spirit of the Plains 2018
70 Imperial Win 13-5 1630.56 Jun 30th Spirit of the Plains 2018
95 Scythe Win 12-10 1117.19 Jul 1st Spirit of the Plains 2018
60 DeMo Loss 9-11 847.37 Jul 1st Spirit of the Plains 2018
70 Imperial Loss 10-11 905.56 Jul 1st Spirit of the Plains 2018
6 Furious George** Loss 6-15 1269.11 Ignored Jul 28th TCT Select Flight Invite 2018
38 Dark Star Loss 9-13 861.35 Jul 28th TCT Select Flight Invite 2018
35 Nitro Win 11-10 1427.25 Jul 28th TCT Select Flight Invite 2018
63 Sawtooth Loss 11-12 931.56 Jul 29th TCT Select Flight Invite 2018
31 Black Market Loss 12-13 1221.73 Jul 29th TCT Select Flight Invite 2018
31 Black Market Loss 9-12 1001.36 Aug 25th The Bropen 2018
48 Four Loss 10-13 887.93 Aug 25th The Bropen 2018
47 MKE Loss 8-11 858.77 Aug 25th The Bropen 2018
161 Ironside** Win 13-3 807.16 Ignored Aug 25th The Bropen 2018
121 BlackER Market Win 13-3 1306.46 Aug 26th The Bropen 2018
39 Mad Men Win 13-7 1836.5 Aug 26th The Bropen 2018
56 Haymaker Loss 11-13 901.43 Aug 26th The Bropen 2018
95 Scythe Win 13-7 1436.6 Sep 15th West Plains Mens Sectional Championship 2018
164 Fifty-Fifty** Win 13-3 737.74 Ignored Sep 15th West Plains Mens Sectional Championship 2018
- Miner Magic Win 13-6 1028.88 Sep 15th West Plains Mens Sectional Championship 2018
21 Prairie Fire Loss 9-13 1089.62 Sep 15th West Plains Mens Sectional Championship 2018
49 CaSTLe Loss 6-13 614.15 Sep 16th West Plains Mens Sectional Championship 2018
120 KC SmokeStack Win 13-10 1039.89 Sep 16th West Plains Mens Sectional Championship 2018
111 Cryptic Win 13-10 1094.61 Sep 16th West Plains Mens Sectional Championship 2018
49 CaSTLe Win 10-8 1476.82 Sep 22nd North Central Mens Regional Championship 2018
16 Madison Club Loss 5-13 1092.51 Sep 22nd North Central Mens Regional Championship 2018
59 Mallard Win 13-6 1698.06 Sep 22nd North Central Mens Regional Championship 2018
47 MKE Loss 9-11 975.17 Sep 22nd North Central Mens Regional Championship 2018
49 CaSTLe Win 13-9 1632.72 Sep 23rd North Central Mens Regional Championship 2018
32 General Strike Loss 13-14 1221.5 Sep 23rd North Central Mens Regional Championship 2018
59 Mallard Win 13-9 1516.62 Sep 23rd North Central Mens Regional Championship 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)