#19 Guerrilla (17-12)

avg: 1547.89  •  sd: 76.26  •  top 16/20: 8.5%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
7 Chicago Machine Loss 7-13 1287.4 Jul 7th TCT Pro Elite Challenge 2018
5 Truck Stop Win 13-10 2265.01 Jul 7th TCT Pro Elite Challenge 2018
20 Patrol Loss 11-13 1311.86 Jul 7th TCT Pro Elite Challenge 2018
11 DiG Loss 11-12 1672.25 Jul 8th TCT Pro Elite Challenge 2018
3 PoNY Loss 7-13 1473.77 Jul 8th TCT Pro Elite Challenge 2018
8 Sub Zero Win 13-8 2325.93 Jul 8th TCT Pro Elite Challenge 2018
49 CaSTLe Win 13-6 1814.15 Jul 28th TCT Select Flight Invite 2018
6 Furious George Loss 7-13 1311.58 Jul 28th TCT Select Flight Invite 2018
38 Dark Star Win 13-4 1879.92 Jul 28th TCT Select Flight Invite 2018
88 PowderHogs Win 13-6 1508.48 Jul 28th TCT Select Flight Invite 2018
12 Rhino Slam Loss 8-13 1283.51 Jul 29th TCT Select Flight Invite 2018
22 Voodoo Win 13-12 1629.47 Jul 29th TCT Select Flight Invite 2018
21 Prairie Fire Win 12-10 1746.3 Jul 29th TCT Select Flight Invite 2018
26 Brickyard Loss 13-14 1273.84 Aug 18th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2018
2 Sockeye Loss 9-13 1616.6 Aug 18th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2018
24 Inception Win 13-6 2021.34 Aug 18th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2018
7 Chicago Machine Loss 10-12 1606.81 Aug 19th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2018
18 Pittsburgh Temper Loss 6-13 1071.4 Aug 19th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2018
- Journeymen** Win 13-3 1064.22 Ignored Sep 8th Nor Cal Mens Sectional Championship 2018
99 Red Dawn Win 12-9 1189.08 Sep 8th Nor Cal Mens Sectional Championship 2018
86 Green River Swordfish Win 13-6 1522.11 Sep 8th Nor Cal Mens Sectional Championship 2018
- Anchor** Win 13-5 849.25 Ignored Sep 9th Nor Cal Mens Sectional Championship 2018
93 Battery Win 13-9 1302.45 Sep 9th Nor Cal Mens Sectional Championship 2018
86 Green River Swordfish** Win 13-2 1522.11 Ignored Sep 9th Nor Cal Mens Sectional Championship 2018
1 Revolver Loss 9-15 1564.16 Sep 22nd Southwest Mens Regional Championship 2018
93 Battery** Win 15-6 1483.89 Ignored Sep 22nd Southwest Mens Regional Championship 2018
81 Sundowners** Win 15-6 1547.72 Ignored Sep 22nd Southwest Mens Regional Championship 2018
17 SoCal Condors Loss 11-15 1299.86 Sep 23rd Southwest Mens Regional Championship 2018
40 Streetgang Win 15-11 1656.26 Sep 23rd Southwest Mens Regional Championship 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)