#108 H.O.G. Ultimate (20-16)

avg: 1012.99  •  sd: 58.25  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
120 baNC Win 12-11 1061.22 Jun 15th ATL Classic 2019
52 El Niño Loss 6-11 810.15 Jun 15th ATL Classic 2019
67 Ironmen Loss 8-13 742 Jun 15th ATL Classic 2019
203 War Machine Win 12-11 564.03 Jun 15th ATL Classic 2019
85 ATLiens Loss 6-11 562.49 Jun 16th ATL Classic 2019
67 Ironmen Loss 5-11 638.16 Jun 16th ATL Classic 2019
183 Battleship Win 11-3 1156.85 Jul 6th Huntsville Huckfest 2019
67 Ironmen Loss 9-10 1113.16 Jul 6th Huntsville Huckfest 2019
152 Predator Win 11-7 1233.52 Jul 6th Huntsville Huckfest 2019
37 Tanasi Win 11-10 1600.25 Jul 6th Huntsville Huckfest 2019
199 Villains Win 11-3 1075.95 Jul 6th Huntsville Huckfest 2019
36 Freaks Loss 10-15 1021.8 Jul 7th Huntsville Huckfest 2019
187 Rampage Win 11-4 1137.55 Jul 7th Huntsville Huckfest 2019
67 Ironmen Loss 5-9 709.1 Jul 7th Huntsville Huckfest 2019
127 Rougaroux Loss 9-12 560.61 Jul 20th 2019 Club Terminus
102 Charleston Heat Stroke Loss 10-13 706.31 Jul 20th 2019 Club Terminus
143 Space Cowboys Loss 10-11 702.93 Jul 20th 2019 Club Terminus
152 Predator Loss 9-11 517.42 Jul 21st 2019 Club Terminus
221 Traffic Win 10-7 651.97 Jul 21st 2019 Club Terminus
199 Villains Win 11-8 841.56 Jul 21st 2019 Club Terminus
210 Gentlemen's Club Win 11-6 938.54 Aug 17th Mudbowl 2019
203 War Machine Win 13-3 1039.03 Aug 17th Mudbowl 2019
183 Battleship Win 13-5 1156.85 Aug 17th Mudbowl 2019
86 Bullet Win 12-7 1627.21 Aug 18th Mudbowl 2019
67 Ironmen Loss 11-12 1113.16 Aug 18th Mudbowl 2019
117 Rush Hour ATL Win 8-8 968.19 Aug 18th Mudbowl 2019
102 Charleston Heat Stroke Win 13-12 1159.45 Sep 7th East Coast Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
86 Bullet Win 11-10 1231.7 Sep 7th East Coast Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
117 Rush Hour ATL Loss 11-12 843.19 Sep 7th East Coast Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
143 Space Cowboys Win 13-12 952.93 Sep 7th East Coast Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
38 Lost Boys Win 13-8 1939.15 Sep 8th East Coast Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
37 Tanasi Loss 5-13 875.25 Sep 8th East Coast Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
117 Rush Hour ATL Loss 9-13 549.62 Sep 21st Southeast Club Mens Regional Championship 2019
63 Turbine Win 10-9 1377.54 Sep 21st Southeast Club Mens Regional Championship 2019
14 Chain Lightning** Loss 5-13 1218.1 Ignored Sep 21st Southeast Club Mens Regional Championship 2019
99 Bash Bros Win 13-12 1167.71 Sep 22nd Southeast Club Mens Regional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)