#106 H.O.G. Ultimate (18-14)

avg: 1007.12  •  sd: 58.25  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
115 baNC Win 12-11 1087.39 Jun 15th ATL Classic 2019
49 El Niño Loss 6-11 801.29 Jun 15th ATL Classic 2019
66 Ironmen Loss 8-13 732 Jun 15th ATL Classic 2019
202 War Machine Win 12-11 561.17 Jun 15th ATL Classic 2019
86 ATLiens Loss 6-11 568.24 Jun 16th ATL Classic 2019
66 Ironmen Loss 5-11 628.16 Jun 16th ATL Classic 2019
186 Battleship Win 11-3 1152.69 Jul 6th Huntsville Huckfest 2019
66 Ironmen Loss 9-10 1103.16 Jul 6th Huntsville Huckfest 2019
151 Predator Win 11-7 1233.6 Jul 6th Huntsville Huckfest 2019
35 Tanasi Win 11-10 1598.63 Jul 6th Huntsville Huckfest 2019
198 Villains Win 11-3 1073.7 Jul 6th Huntsville Huckfest 2019
33 Freaks Loss 10-15 1045.99 Jul 7th Huntsville Huckfest 2019
187 Rampage Win 11-4 1133.03 Jul 7th Huntsville Huckfest 2019
66 Ironmen Loss 5-9 699.1 Jul 7th Huntsville Huckfest 2019
104 Charleston Heat Stroke Loss 10-13 697.08 Jul 20th 2019 Club Terminus
126 Rougaroux Loss 9-12 559.66 Jul 20th 2019 Club Terminus
139 Space Cowboys Loss 10-11 709.13 Jul 20th 2019 Club Terminus
151 Predator Loss 9-11 517.5 Jul 21st 2019 Club Terminus
223 Traffic Win 10-7 652.26 Jul 21st 2019 Club Terminus
198 Villains Win 11-8 839.31 Jul 21st 2019 Club Terminus
212 Gentlemen's Club Win 11-6 931.19 Aug 17th Mudbowl 2019
202 War Machine Win 13-3 1036.17 Aug 17th Mudbowl 2019
186 Battleship Win 13-5 1152.69 Aug 17th Mudbowl 2019
81 Bullet Win 12-7 1646.94 Aug 18th Mudbowl 2019
66 Ironmen Loss 11-12 1103.16 Aug 18th Mudbowl 2019
120 Rush Hour ATL Win 8-8 947.33 Aug 18th Mudbowl 2019
104 Charleston Heat Stroke Win 13-12 1150.22 Sep 7th East Coast Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
81 Bullet Win 11-10 1251.43 Sep 7th East Coast Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
120 Rush Hour ATL Loss 11-12 822.33 Sep 7th East Coast Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
139 Space Cowboys Win 13-12 959.13 Sep 7th East Coast Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
35 Tanasi Loss 5-13 873.63 Sep 8th East Coast Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
37 Lost Boys Win 13-8 1957.25 Sep 8th East Coast Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)