#172 Hazard (9-10)

avg: 656.28  •  sd: 66.01  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
129 Kentucky Flying Circus Loss 6-15 298.44 Jun 22nd SCINNY 2019
125 Dynasty Loss 5-15 308.32 Jun 22nd SCINNY 2019
242 Flying Piglet** Win 13-3 262.11 Ignored Jun 22nd SCINNY 2019
204 Red Imp.ala Win 13-9 849.78 Jun 22nd SCINNY 2019
128 Enigma Loss 9-13 480.56 Jun 23rd SCINNY 2019
70 Omen Loss 7-13 644.99 Jun 23rd SCINNY 2019
185 A-Block Loss 6-11 6.8 Jun 23rd SCINNY 2019
137 Babe Loss 11-13 613.06 Aug 3rd Philly Open 2019
152 Watchdogs Win 13-11 991.74 Aug 3rd Philly Open 2019
211 Bearproof Win 13-11 620.31 Aug 3rd Philly Open 2019
230 Hot Tamales Win 13-9 613.32 Aug 3rd Philly Open 2019
50 Colt** Loss 5-13 744.87 Ignored Aug 4th Philly Open 2019
171 Adelphos Win 13-10 984.95 Aug 4th Philly Open 2019
239 Philadelphia Padawans** Win 13-3 510.17 Ignored Sep 7th Founders Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
58 Rumspringa Loss 7-13 719.54 Sep 7th Founders Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
18 Patrol** Loss 2-13 1138.32 Ignored Sep 7th Founders Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
211 Bearproof Win 13-11 620.31 Sep 7th Founders Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
181 Helots Win 13-8 1069.02 Sep 8th Founders Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
171 Adelphos Loss 10-11 531.81 Sep 8th Founders Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)