#95 Scythe (20-26)

avg: 879.07  •  sd: 38.27  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
130 Syndicate Win 13-10 959.12 Jun 16th Fort Collins Summer Solstice 2018
21 Prairie Fire** Loss 3-13 908.18 Ignored Jun 16th Fort Collins Summer Solstice 2018
- Johnny Encore Loss 8-13 723.86 Jun 16th Fort Collins Summer Solstice 2018
162 Colorado Cutthroat** Win 13-5 783.8 Ignored Jun 16th Fort Collins Summer Solstice 2018
- Johnny Walker Loss 9-15 562.01 Jun 17th Fort Collins Summer Solstice 2018
92 Choice City Hops Win 15-5 1487.99 Jun 17th Fort Collins Summer Solstice 2018
120 KC SmokeStack Win 13-10 1039.89 Jun 30th Spirit of the Plains 2018
117 THE BODY Win 13-12 855.94 Jun 30th Spirit of the Plains 2018
60 DeMo Loss 11-13 867.74 Jun 30th Spirit of the Plains 2018
154 Black Market II Win 13-6 906.83 Jun 30th Spirit of the Plains 2018
32 General Strike Loss 9-11 1097.3 Jul 1st Spirit of the Plains 2018
53 Illusion Loss 10-12 935.96 Jul 1st Spirit of the Plains 2018
120 KC SmokeStack Win 9-4 1311.75 Jul 1st Spirit of the Plains 2018
130 Syndicate Win 11-7 1097.87 Jul 21st The Royal Experience 18
110 Dreadnought Win 11-9 1018.59 Jul 21st The Royal Experience 18
59 Mallard Loss 5-11 498.06 Jul 21st The Royal Experience 18
60 DeMo Loss 9-11 847.37 Jul 21st The Royal Experience 18
153 Rawhide Win 11-6 854.83 Jul 21st The Royal Experience 18
80 ISO Atmo Win 15-10 1411.43 Jul 22nd The Royal Experience 18
59 Mallard Loss 10-15 644.45 Jul 22nd The Royal Experience 18
60 DeMo Loss 7-13 539.05 Jul 22nd The Royal Experience 18
163 Hippie Mafia Win 13-7 706.05 Aug 4th Heavyweights 2018
121 BlackER Market Win 13-6 1306.46 Aug 4th Heavyweights 2018
119 MomINtuM Win 13-12 837.34 Aug 4th Heavyweights 2018
48 Four Loss 10-13 887.93 Aug 5th Heavyweights 2018
73 Greater Gary Goblins Y Loss 7-13 458.27 Aug 5th Heavyweights 2018
56 Haymaker Loss 11-13 901.43 Aug 18th Cooler Classic 30
73 Greater Gary Goblins Y Loss 13-14 890.8 Aug 18th Cooler Classic 30
111 Cryptic Loss 14-15 641.47 Aug 18th Cooler Classic 30
103 houSE Loss 12-14 602.58 Aug 18th Cooler Classic 30
149 Chimney Win 15-6 947.03 Aug 19th Cooler Classic 30
116 Greater Gary Goblins X Loss 16-17 616.16 Aug 19th Cooler Classic 30
136 Pipeline Win 11-8 946.43 Aug 19th Cooler Classic 30
164 Fifty-Fifty** Win 13-5 737.74 Ignored Sep 15th West Plains Mens Sectional Championship 2018
21 Prairie Fire** Loss 5-13 908.18 Ignored Sep 15th West Plains Mens Sectional Championship 2018
53 Illusion Loss 7-13 616.55 Sep 15th West Plains Mens Sectional Championship 2018
- Miner Magic Win 13-5 1028.88 Sep 15th West Plains Mens Sectional Championship 2018
49 CaSTLe Loss 9-13 795.58 Sep 16th West Plains Mens Sectional Championship 2018
120 KC SmokeStack Loss 11-13 482.91 Sep 16th West Plains Mens Sectional Championship 2018
111 Cryptic Win 13-8 1262.63 Sep 16th West Plains Mens Sectional Championship 2018
72 Swans Loss 12-14 795.91 Sep 22nd North Central Mens Regional Championship 2018
8 Sub Zero** Loss 4-13 1229.77 Ignored Sep 22nd North Central Mens Regional Championship 2018
21 Prairie Fire Loss 7-13 950.65 Sep 22nd North Central Mens Regional Championship 2018
39 Mad Men Loss 4-13 678.97 Sep 22nd North Central Mens Regional Championship 2018
60 DeMo Win 13-9 1515.15 Sep 23rd North Central Mens Regional Championship 2018
49 CaSTLe Loss 9-13 795.58 Sep 23rd North Central Mens Regional Championship 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)