#54 Red Circus (16-15)

avg: 1325.74  •  sd: 58.67  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
51 Lantern Loss 12-13 1233.82 Jun 22nd Boston Invite 2019
144 Club M - Magma Win 15-6 1425.56 Jun 22nd Boston Invite 2019
66 Deathsquad Win 13-12 1367.32 Jun 22nd Boston Invite 2019
8 DiG Loss 7-15 1351.74 Jun 22nd Boston Invite 2019
121 Genny The Boys Win 12-11 1054.67 Jun 23rd Boston Invite 2019
112 Somerville BAG Win 14-13 1118.38 Jun 23rd Boston Invite 2019
95 Red Tide Loss 9-11 827.86 Jun 23rd Boston Invite 2019
31 Black Market I Win 12-11 1620.14 Jul 27th TCT Select Flight Invite East 2019
29 Brickhouse Win 13-9 1926.81 Jul 27th TCT Select Flight Invite East 2019
33 Nain Rouge Win 13-10 1806.94 Jul 27th TCT Select Flight Invite East 2019
11 Pittsburgh Temper Loss 7-13 1304.22 Jul 27th TCT Select Flight Invite East 2019
20 CLE Smokestack Loss 7-13 1105.26 Jul 28th TCT Select Flight Invite East 2019
11 Pittsburgh Temper Loss 4-13 1261.75 Jul 28th TCT Select Flight Invite East 2019
60 Guerrilla Loss 9-11 1032.82 Aug 17th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2019
14 Chain Lightning Loss 7-15 1218.1 Aug 17th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2019
9 SoCal Condors Loss 5-15 1293.94 Aug 17th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2019
32 Prairie Fire Loss 8-15 918.92 Aug 17th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2019
41 Inception Win 10-8 1683.11 Aug 18th TCT Elite Select Challenge 2019
62 Big Wrench Win 9-8 1401.64 Sep 7th East New England Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
112 Somerville BAG Win 10-8 1256.05 Sep 7th East New England Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
157 Ender's Outcasts Win 13-6 1342.66 Sep 7th East New England Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
186 Watch City** Win 13-5 1138.33 Ignored Sep 7th East New England Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
51 Lantern Loss 8-15 794.01 Sep 8th East New England Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
62 Big Wrench Loss 13-15 1062.46 Sep 8th East New England Mens Club Sectional Championship 2019
87 Magma Bears Win 15-10 1558.99 Sep 21st Northeast Club Mens Regional Championship 2019
35 Blueprint Win 12-10 1715.31 Sep 21st Northeast Club Mens Regional Championship 2019
112 Somerville BAG Win 13-8 1489.54 Sep 21st Northeast Club Mens Regional Championship 2019
17 Sprout Loss 8-13 1271.34 Sep 21st Northeast Club Mens Regional Championship 2019
17 Sprout Loss 6-15 1167.5 Sep 22nd Northeast Club Mens Regional Championship 2019
44 Shade Win 11-10 1534.19 Sep 22nd Northeast Club Mens Regional Championship 2019
8 DiG Loss 7-15 1351.74 Sep 22nd Northeast Club Mens Regional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)