#61 Donuts (19-16)

avg: 1292.12  •  sd: 87.4  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
245 Hot Stix** Win 15-1 564.35 Ignored Jun 9th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2018
55 American Barbecue Win 9-7 1603.62 Jun 9th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2018
119 Buckwild Win 13-9 1449.66 Jun 9th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2018
74 Alchemy Loss 7-10 875.53 Jun 10th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2018
55 American Barbecue Loss 5-10 750.39 Jun 10th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2018
67 Firefly Win 11-10 1407.6 Jun 10th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2018
170 Spoiler Alert Win 15-7 1358.52 Jul 21st Revolution 2018
62 Long Beach Legacy Loss 7-13 734.27 Jul 21st Revolution 2018
65 Family Style Win 10-8 1549.89 Jul 21st Revolution 2018
- POWERLINE Loss 5-10 760.05 Jul 21st Revolution 2018
109 Superstition Loss 10-11 947.46 Jul 22nd Revolution 2018
170 Spoiler Alert Win 11-8 1124.13 Jul 22nd Revolution 2018
110 California Burrito Win 8-7 1192.08 Jul 22nd Revolution 2018
13 Birdfruit Win 12-11 1904.29 Aug 18th The 1st Annual Northwest Fruit Bowl
23 Lights Out Loss 7-12 1093.95 Aug 18th The 1st Annual Northwest Fruit Bowl
89 Sweet Action Loss 8-10 906.37 Aug 18th The 1st Annual Northwest Fruit Bowl
81 Pegasus Loss 8-11 871.68 Aug 18th The 1st Annual Northwest Fruit Bowl
55 American Barbecue Loss 6-12 744.97 Aug 19th The 1st Annual Northwest Fruit Bowl
89 Sweet Action Win 11-8 1534.64 Aug 19th The 1st Annual Northwest Fruit Bowl
51 Cutthroat Loss 9-11 1108.48 Sep 8th Nor Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
236 Delta Breeze** Win 11-1 809.22 Ignored Sep 8th Nor Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
7 Blackbird Loss 4-11 1291.68 Sep 8th Nor Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
182 Sebastopol Orchard** Win 11-3 1272.27 Ignored Sep 8th Nor Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
119 Buckwild Loss 7-9 751.76 Sep 8th Nor Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
74 Alchemy Win 13-7 1822.73 Sep 9th Nor Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
136 Lawn Patrol Win 13-8 1444.88 Sep 9th Nor Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
91 Argo Win 12-8 1606.11 Sep 9th Nor Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
119 Buckwild Win 13-6 1631.1 Sep 9th Nor Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
52 Instant Karma Win 13-6 1945.05 Sep 22nd Southwest Mixed Regional Championship 2018
55 American Barbecue Loss 9-13 905.72 Sep 22nd Southwest Mixed Regional Championship 2018
17 Polar Bears Loss 7-13 1182.15 Sep 22nd Southwest Mixed Regional Championship 2018
47 ROBOS Win 13-6 1987.34 Sep 22nd Southwest Mixed Regional Championship 2018
37 BW Ultimate Loss 8-13 1004.4 Sep 23rd Southwest Mixed Regional Championship 2018
7 Blackbird Loss 5-13 1291.68 Sep 23rd Southwest Mixed Regional Championship 2018
85 Platypi Win 13-9 1609.24 Sep 23rd Southwest Mixed Regional Championship 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)