#218 Hairy Otter (3-12)

avg: 389.72  •  sd: 98.27  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
- SpaceX** Loss 4-11 465.16 Jun 24th Huntsville Huckfest
126 Barefoot Loss 6-11 420.43 Jun 24th Huntsville Huckfest
195 MoonPi Win 13-8 1064.09 Jun 24th Huntsville Huckfest
229 Scoober Heroes Loss 7-8 181.56 Aug 26th Ragna Rock 2023
123 Amber Loss 5-12 381.28 Aug 26th Ragna Rock 2023
223 LRU Win 13-6 941.27 Aug 26th Ragna Rock 2023
242 Central Arkansas Surge Win 13-5 717.33 Aug 27th Ragna Rock 2023
204 New Orleans Boil Loss 6-11 -23.13 Aug 27th Ragna Rock 2023
139 Goosebumps Loss 3-13 270.45 Aug 27th Ragna Rock 2023
53 Roma Ultima** Loss 4-13 748.88 Ignored Sep 9th 2023 Mixed East Coast Sectional Championship
16 'Shine** Loss 0-13 1220.62 Ignored Sep 9th 2023 Mixed East Coast Sectional Championship
152 Verdant Loss 8-13 328.34 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed East Coast Sectional Championship
217 Flood Zone Loss 10-11 284.59 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed East Coast Sectional Championship
195 MoonPi Loss 5-13 -32.07 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed East Coast Sectional Championship
73 m'kay Ultimate** Loss 4-13 633.75 Ignored Sep 10th 2023 Mixed East Coast Sectional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)