#88 Alchemy (17-16)

avg: 1153.15  •  sd: 49.08  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
235 Fear and Loathing** Win 13-5 1033.83 Ignored Jun 29th Truckee River Ultimate Cooldown 2019
127 Platypi Loss 6-8 703.77 Jun 29th Truckee River Ultimate Cooldown 2019
37 Garage Sale Loss 7-9 1241.83 Jun 29th Truckee River Ultimate Cooldown 2019
163 VU Win 13-4 1414.21 Jun 29th Truckee River Ultimate Cooldown 2019
61 American Barbecue Loss 11-12 1173.36 Jun 30th Truckee River Ultimate Cooldown 2019
127 Platypi Loss 9-11 755.06 Jun 30th Truckee River Ultimate Cooldown 2019
97 California Burrito Win 11-10 1245.63 Jul 20th Revolution 2019
142 Superstition Win 11-6 1444.5 Jul 20th Revolution 2019
178 Long Beach Legacy Win 13-7 1282.73 Jul 20th Revolution 2019
61 American Barbecue Loss 9-10 1173.36 Jul 20th Revolution 2019
148 Sweet Action Win 12-8 1312.21 Jul 21st Revolution 2019
96 Robot Win 11-6 1667.42 Jul 21st Revolution 2019
104 Argo Win 12-7 1622.35 Jul 21st Revolution 2019
118 Absolute Zero Win 13-8 1550.35 Aug 24th Ski Town Classic 2019
235 Fear and Loathing** Win 13-5 1033.83 Ignored Aug 24th Ski Town Classic 2019
148 Sweet Action Loss 9-10 746.05 Aug 24th Ski Town Classic 2019
48 Pivot Loss 9-12 1095.15 Aug 24th Ski Town Classic 2019
50 Cutthroat Loss 6-13 816.57 Aug 25th Ski Town Classic 2019
129 Moontower Win 12-8 1429.34 Aug 25th Ski Town Classic 2019
9 Blackbird Loss 7-13 1268.17 Sep 7th Nor Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
184 DR Win 13-2 1297.45 Sep 7th Nor Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
66 Firefly Loss 8-10 994.62 Sep 7th Nor Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
218 Megalodon Win 12-7 1080.12 Sep 7th Nor Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
101 Buckwild Win 11-9 1362.45 Sep 8th Nor Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
50 Cutthroat Loss 6-11 869.87 Sep 8th Nor Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
163 VU Win 9-7 1093.54 Sep 8th Nor Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
104 Argo Win 10-8 1364.5 Sep 8th Nor Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
48 Pivot Loss 6-13 840.51 Sep 21st Southwest Club Mixed Regional Championship
30 Lotus Loss 9-13 1198.82 Sep 21st Southwest Club Mixed Regional Championship
127 Platypi Win 13-7 1561.8 Sep 21st Southwest Club Mixed Regional Championship
66 Firefly Loss 4-13 657.29 Sep 21st Southwest Club Mixed Regional Championship
36 BW Ultimate Loss 8-13 1028.75 Sep 22nd Southwest Club Mixed Regional Championship
42 Classy Loss 6-13 862.69 Sep 22nd Southwest Club Mixed Regional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)