#86 Eat Lightning (17-9)

avg: 1221.84  •  sd: 63.02  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
88 The Bandits Win 12-11 1327.88 Jul 13th Philly Invite 2019
35 League of Shadows Loss 7-15 963.4 Jul 13th Philly Invite 2019
117 PS Loss 10-13 771.18 Jul 13th Philly Invite 2019
115 Rat City Loss 11-15 724.51 Jul 13th Philly Invite 2019
112 Stoke Loss 8-11 747.96 Jul 14th Philly Invite 2019
94 Soft Boiled Win 11-8 1547.56 Jul 14th Philly Invite 2019
133 Night Shift Win 10-8 1282.73 Aug 17th Chowdafest 2019
197 x-C Win 13-10 1027.83 Aug 17th Chowdafest 2019
81 The Feminists Win 11-10 1377.72 Aug 17th Chowdafest 2019
204 Rainbow Win 11-8 1046.65 Aug 17th Chowdafest 2019
39 Darkwing Loss 9-13 1122.5 Aug 18th Chowdafest 2019
97 Sunken Circus Loss 8-12 736.71 Aug 18th Chowdafest 2019
88 The Bandits Win 11-9 1452.09 Aug 18th Chowdafest 2019
270 Baltimore BENCH** Win 13-2 892.64 Ignored Aug 24th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
266 I-79** Win 13-1 915.46 Ignored Aug 24th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
142 Philly Twist Win 13-7 1509.82 Aug 24th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
115 Rat City Win 13-5 1705.67 Aug 24th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
143 Superstition Win 10-3 1550.28 Aug 25th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
120 Funk Win 12-10 1324.9 Aug 25th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
94 Soft Boiled Loss 10-11 1056.95 Aug 25th The Incident 2019 Age of Ultimatron
194 Nautilus Win 15-13 917.58 Sep 7th Metro New York Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
120 Funk Win 17-9 1656.79 Sep 7th Metro New York Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
81 The Feminists Win 11-9 1501.93 Sep 7th Metro New York Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
96 Birds Win 15-9 1693.87 Sep 8th Metro New York Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
56 Grand Army Loss 12-15 1101.37 Sep 8th Metro New York Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
81 The Feminists Loss 8-12 811.57 Sep 8th Metro New York Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)