#67 Firefly (18-17)

avg: 1282.6  •  sd: 55.14  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
131 Absolute Zero Win 14-6 1566.06 Jun 9th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2018
161 AC Bandits Win 13-10 1128.43 Jun 9th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2018
37 BW Ultimate Loss 6-13 900.56 Jun 9th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2018
170 Spoiler Alert Win 12-5 1358.52 Jun 9th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2018
61 Donuts Loss 10-11 1167.12 Jun 10th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2018
- Brewcade Loss 7-15 965.82 Jun 10th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2018
85 Platypi Win 9-7 1470.01 Jun 10th Bay Area Ultimate Classic 2018
85 Platypi Win 11-8 1556.28 Jul 21st Revolution 2018
72 Bird Loss 10-11 1141.31 Jul 21st Revolution 2018
23 Lights Out Loss 7-13 1056.93 Jul 21st Revolution 2018
55 American Barbecue Win 11-5 1924.28 Jul 22nd Revolution 2018
37 BW Ultimate Loss 7-11 1033.67 Jul 22nd Revolution 2018
35 Classy Loss 7-12 993.2 Jul 22nd Revolution 2018
- POWERLINE Win 13-10 1662.09 Jul 22nd Revolution 2018
167 Wildstyle Win 13-5 1383.29 Aug 18th Ski Town Classic 2018
44 Bozos Loss 2-13 860.67 Aug 18th Ski Town Classic 2018
65 Family Style Win 12-11 1412.22 Aug 18th Ski Town Classic 2018
138 The Strangers Win 12-7 1460.07 Aug 18th Ski Town Classic 2018
52 Instant Karma Win 13-12 1470.05 Aug 19th Ski Town Classic 2018
74 Alchemy Win 13-11 1494.04 Aug 19th Ski Town Classic 2018
48 Rubix Loss 6-13 778.83 Aug 19th Ski Town Classic 2018
131 Absolute Zero Win 13-11 1194.9 Sep 8th Nor Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
161 AC Bandits Win 13-4 1400.29 Sep 8th Nor Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
55 American Barbecue Loss 8-10 1061.62 Sep 8th Nor Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
17 Polar Bears Loss 10-13 1411.54 Sep 8th Nor Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
74 Alchemy Win 13-12 1390.2 Sep 9th Nor Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
55 American Barbecue Loss 5-13 724.28 Sep 9th Nor Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
85 Platypi Win 13-9 1609.24 Sep 9th Nor Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
91 Argo Win 11-9 1414.16 Sep 9th Nor Cal Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
52 Instant Karma Loss 7-13 787.52 Sep 22nd Southwest Mixed Regional Championship 2018
29 7 Figures Loss 11-12 1435.38 Sep 22nd Southwest Mixed Regional Championship 2018
7 Blackbird Loss 9-13 1473.11 Sep 22nd Southwest Mixed Regional Championship 2018
52 Instant Karma Loss 11-13 1116.21 Sep 23rd Southwest Mixed Regional Championship 2018
51 Cutthroat Win 13-4 1957.69 Sep 23rd Southwest Mixed Regional Championship 2018
71 Robot Loss 11-13 1046.06 Sep 23rd Southwest Mixed Regional Championship 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)