#247 rubber duck ultimate. (5-14)

avg: 385.15  •  sd: 49.03  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
45 Waterloo** Loss 1-11 847.57 Ignored Jun 15th Texas Two Finger 2019
183 Wildstyle Loss 6-11 165.64 Jun 15th Texas Two Finger 2019
78 Memphis STAX** Loss 3-11 607.34 Ignored Jun 15th Texas Two Finger 2019
284 Mixed on the Rock Win 11-7 547.26 Jun 15th Texas Two Finger 2019
113 blOKC party Loss 6-13 466.68 Jul 13th OK Corral 2019
53 Boomtown** Loss 2-13 745.13 Ignored Jul 13th OK Corral 2019
159 Tex Mix Loss 7-13 278.69 Jul 13th OK Corral 2019
113 blOKC party** Loss 3-13 466.68 Ignored Jul 14th OK Corral 2019
53 Boomtown** Loss 2-13 745.13 Ignored Jul 14th OK Corral 2019
159 Tex Mix Loss 8-11 470.61 Jul 14th OK Corral 2019
191 Be Reasonable Loss 9-12 319.64 Aug 17th Hootie on the Hill 2019
167 Hellbenders Loss 9-13 377.55 Aug 17th Hootie on the Hill 2019
292 Mixfits Win 13-1 432.33 Aug 17th Hootie on the Hill 2019
297 NWA White Tails** Win 13-1 128.18 Ignored Aug 17th Hootie on the Hill 2019
213 Memphis Hustle & Flow Loss 10-15 127.26 Aug 18th Hootie on the Hill 2019
292 Mixfits Win 15-9 347.81 Aug 18th Hootie on the Hill 2019
113 blOKC party Loss 9-15 551.2 Sep 14th Ozarks Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
113 blOKC party** Loss 4-15 466.68 Ignored Sep 14th Ozarks Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
284 Mixed on the Rock Win 15-11 461.53 Sep 14th Ozarks Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)