#198 Birds of Paradise (7-11)

avg: 698.26  •  sd: 80.63  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
259 Party Cats-D Win 10-7 751.12 Jul 20th Revolution 2019
184 DR Win 9-8 880.92 Jul 20th Revolution 2019
215 Megalodon Loss 8-12 187.86 Jul 20th Revolution 2019
176 Spoiler Alert Loss 9-12 436.07 Jul 21st Revolution 2019
260 Happy Cows Win 10-7 743.95 Jul 21st Revolution 2019
163 VU Loss 8-13 374.64 Jul 21st Revolution 2019
44 Pivot Loss 9-15 984.65 Aug 3rd 4th Annual Coconino Classic 2019
69 Instant Karma** Loss 1-15 706.3 Ignored Aug 3rd 4th Annual Coconino Classic 2019
246 Rogue Loss 11-13 225.11 Aug 3rd 4th Annual Coconino Classic 2019
239 Fear and Loathing Win 13-10 806.51 Aug 4th 4th Annual Coconino Classic 2019
179 Long Beach Legacy Loss 4-13 173.82 Aug 4th 4th Annual Coconino Classic 2019
246 Rogue Win 11-6 1000.65 Sep 7th So Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
101 Robot Loss 8-10 905.26 Sep 7th So Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
102 Family Style Loss 4-13 567.56 Sep 7th So Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
29 Lotus** Loss 4-13 1043.08 Ignored Sep 7th So Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
179 Long Beach Legacy Win 13-6 1373.82 Sep 8th So Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
239 Fear and Loathing Win 13-6 1078.37 Sep 8th So Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
176 Spoiler Alert Loss 6-10 285.27 Sep 8th So Cal Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)