#288 Ope! (1-10)

avg: 71.19  •  sd: 161.6  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
53 Pretty Boys and Handsome Girls** Loss 0-13 833.83 Ignored Jun 29th Spirit of the Plains 2019
19 The Chad Larson Experience** Loss 1-13 1159.72 Ignored Jun 29th Spirit of the Plains 2019
192 Jabba** Loss 4-13 108.36 Ignored Jun 29th Spirit of the Plains 2019
22 Chalice** Loss 0-7 1117.13 Ignored Jun 30th Spirit of the Plains 2019
139 Tequila Mockingbird** Loss 4-10 385.39 Ignored Jun 30th Spirit of the Plains 2019
244 Madison United Mixed Ultimate Loss 4-8 -103.03 Jun 30th Spirit of the Plains 2019
240 Duloofda Loss 9-13 52.86 Jul 20th Minnesota Ultimate Disc Invitational
226 Boomtown Pandas Loss 10-13 243.47 Jul 21st Minnesota Ultimate Disc Invitational
279 Identity Theft Loss 7-10 -179.74 Jul 21st Minnesota Ultimate Disc Invitational
238 MN Superior Loss 5-8 27.26 Jul 21st Minnesota Ultimate Disc Invitational
294 MUTT Win 10-4 343.34 Jul 21st Minnesota Ultimate Disc Invitational
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)