#58 Happy Valley (13-4)

avg: 1311.42  •  sd: 127.26  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
- VIP Club Win 11-10 1332.58 Jul 7th AntlerLock 2018
242 Buffalo Brain Freeze** Win 13-2 670.2 Ignored Jul 7th AntlerLock 2018
148 WHUF* Win 12-10 1118.31 Jul 7th AntlerLock 2018
195 Rainbow Win 12-9 940.55 Jul 7th AntlerLock 2018
53 Darkwing Win 15-12 1634.76 Jul 8th AntlerLock 2018
102 Titan NE Win 15-10 1560.57 Jul 8th AntlerLock 2018
57 Heartless Win 15-12 1614.15 Jul 8th AntlerLock 2018
154 Default Win 14-8 1383.17 Aug 26th Vermont Round Robin 2018
218 Equinox** Win 14-5 1045.77 Ignored Aug 26th Vermont Round Robin 2018
57 Heartless Loss 6-15 713.66 Aug 26th Vermont Round Robin 2018
164 Enough Monkeys Win 15-7 1395.85 Sep 8th West New England Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
57 Heartless Win 15-13 1527.84 Sep 8th West New England Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
50 Grand Army Loss 8-14 833.65 Sep 22nd Northeast Mixed Regional Championship 2018
66 The Feminists Win 15-12 1584.05 Sep 22nd Northeast Mixed Regional Championship 2018
6 Snake Country** Loss 3-15 1342.98 Ignored Sep 22nd Northeast Mixed Regional Championship 2018
31 Metro North Loss 11-15 1175.15 Sep 22nd Northeast Mixed Regional Championship 2018
102 Titan NE Win 15-9 1622.44 Sep 23rd Northeast Mixed Regional Championship 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)