#107 Sunken Circus (17-15)

avg: 1077.52  •  sd: 75.25  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
133 Townies Win 11-6 1507.85 Jul 7th AntlerLock 2018
53 Darkwing Win 10-8 1596.93 Jul 7th AntlerLock 2018
220 Bees** Win 11-4 1003.91 Ignored Jul 7th AntlerLock 2018
218 Equinox** Win 12-5 1045.77 Ignored Jul 7th AntlerLock 2018
- VIP Club Win 14-12 1428.54 Jul 8th AntlerLock 2018
57 Heartless Loss 12-13 1188.66 Jul 8th AntlerLock 2018
57 Heartless Loss 8-13 817.5 Jul 21st Vacationland 2018
108 Alt Stacks Loss 3-12 477.49 Jul 21st Vacationland 2018
181 RIMIX Win 13-7 1229.89 Jul 21st Vacationland 2018
214 Face Off Win 13-3 1093.06 Jul 21st Vacationland 2018
- Rising Tide Win 13-6 1104.69 Jul 21st Vacationland 2018
139 Nautilus Win 15-6 1515.89 Jul 22nd Vacationland 2018
102 Titan NE Win 12-11 1231.96 Jul 22nd Vacationland 2018
57 Heartless Loss 4-13 713.66 Aug 18th Chowdafest 2018
124 Albany Airbenders Loss 9-13 593.54 Aug 18th Chowdafest 2018
150 Scarecrow Loss 10-12 629.28 Aug 18th Chowdafest 2018
148 WHUF* Loss 10-12 642.06 Aug 18th Chowdafest 2018
180 HAOS Win 13-3 1279.94 Aug 19th Chowdafest 2018
113 The Bandits Win 11-9 1292.7 Aug 19th Chowdafest 2018
180 HAOS Win 15-9 1195.42 Sep 8th East New England Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
53 Darkwing Loss 8-15 769.46 Sep 8th East New England Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
73 Chaotic Good Loss 6-15 665.65 Sep 8th East New England Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
214 Face Off Win 15-9 1008.54 Sep 8th East New England Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
53 Darkwing Loss 8-15 769.46 Sep 9th East New England Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
73 Chaotic Good Win 13-11 1494.49 Sep 9th East New England Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
148 WHUF* Win 14-7 1463.07 Sep 9th East New England Mixed Sectional Championship 2018
9 Wild Card Loss 9-14 1399.78 Sep 22nd Northeast Mixed Regional Championship 2018
32 UNION Loss 8-10 1278.14 Sep 22nd Northeast Mixed Regional Championship 2018
57 Heartless Win 11-8 1679.27 Sep 22nd Northeast Mixed Regional Championship 2018
33 League of Shadows Loss 7-15 935.95 Sep 22nd Northeast Mixed Regional Championship 2018
83 Birds Loss 7-12 705.03 Sep 23rd Northeast Mixed Regional Championship 2018
66 The Feminists Loss 11-15 902.39 Sep 23rd Northeast Mixed Regional Championship 2018
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)