#148 Scarecrow (13-14)

avg: 928.71  •  sd: 59.17  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
120 Funk Win 12-10 1324.9 Jul 6th AntlerLock 2019
137 Default Loss 10-13 671.92 Jul 6th AntlerLock 2019
133 Night Shift Win 12-11 1145.06 Jul 6th AntlerLock 2019
96 Birds Loss 9-15 662.91 Jul 7th AntlerLock 2019
168 WHUF* Win 13-4 1434.12 Jul 7th AntlerLock 2019
97 Sunken Circus Loss 3-10 577.86 Jul 7th AntlerLock 2019
- Cool Whip** Win 12-2 600 Ignored Jul 20th Vacationland 2019
275 Dead Reckoning** Win 15-3 849.24 Ignored Jul 20th Vacationland 2019
199 HAOS Loss 8-9 571.95 Jul 20th Vacationland 2019
264 Albany Airbenders Win 9-6 750.41 Jul 21st Vacationland 2019
97 Sunken Circus Loss 7-13 620.33 Jul 21st Vacationland 2019
133 Night Shift Win 8-7 1145.06 Jul 21st Vacationland 2019
39 Darkwing Loss 8-11 1175.46 Aug 17th Chowdafest 2019
210 Face Off Loss 11-12 532.87 Aug 17th Chowdafest 2019
124 Happy Valley Loss 7-13 509.83 Aug 17th Chowdafest 2019
212 Sorted Beans Win 13-5 1249.6 Aug 17th Chowdafest 2019
88 The Bandits Loss 7-13 645.35 Aug 18th Chowdafest 2019
97 Sunken Circus Loss 8-12 736.71 Aug 18th Chowdafest 2019
197 x-C Win 10-8 962.35 Aug 18th Chowdafest 2019
206 DTH Win 13-5 1274.83 Sep 7th East New England Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
210 Face Off Loss 10-11 532.87 Sep 7th East New England Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
35 League of Shadows Loss 8-14 1027.36 Sep 7th East New England Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
5 Wild Card** Loss 4-15 1402.74 Ignored Sep 7th East New England Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
210 Face Off Win 15-7 1257.87 Sep 8th East New England Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
204 Rainbow Win 15-5 1281.04 Sep 8th East New England Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
97 Sunken Circus Loss 8-11 812.26 Sep 8th East New England Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
133 Night Shift Win 14-13 1145.06 Sep 8th East New England Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)