#150 Scarecrow (13-19)

avg: 862.02  •  sd: 59.17  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
133 Night Shift Win 12-11 1086.88 Jul 6th AntlerLock 2019
124 Funk Win 12-10 1262.7 Jul 6th AntlerLock 2019
134 Default Loss 10-13 628.93 Jul 6th AntlerLock 2019
109 Birds Loss 9-15 562.99 Jul 7th AntlerLock 2019
93 Sunken Circus Loss 3-10 533.39 Jul 7th AntlerLock 2019
169 WHUF* Win 13-4 1372.77 Jul 7th AntlerLock 2019
197 HAOS Loss 8-9 520.24 Jul 20th Vacationland 2019
- Cool Whip** Win 12-2 605.01 Ignored Jul 20th Vacationland 2019
275 Dead Reckoning** Win 15-3 798.9 Ignored Jul 20th Vacationland 2019
133 Night Shift Win 8-7 1086.88 Jul 21st Vacationland 2019
263 Albany Airbenders Win 9-6 694.29 Jul 21st Vacationland 2019
93 Sunken Circus Loss 7-13 575.86 Jul 21st Vacationland 2019
105 Happy Valley Loss 7-13 542.07 Aug 17th Chowdafest 2019
51 Darkwing Loss 8-11 1044.53 Aug 17th Chowdafest 2019
207 Face Off Loss 11-12 480.01 Aug 17th Chowdafest 2019
210 Sorted Beans Win 13-5 1197.53 Aug 17th Chowdafest 2019
198 x-C Win 10-8 902.58 Aug 18th Chowdafest 2019
93 Sunken Circus Loss 8-12 692.24 Aug 18th Chowdafest 2019
92 The Bandits Loss 7-13 576.82 Aug 18th Chowdafest 2019
205 DTH Win 13-5 1217.47 Sep 7th East New England Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
207 Face Off Loss 10-11 480.01 Sep 7th East New England Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
7 Wild Card** Loss 4-15 1273.76 Ignored Sep 7th East New England Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
49 League of Shadows Loss 8-14 901.67 Sep 7th East New England Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
133 Night Shift Win 14-13 1086.88 Sep 8th East New England Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
207 Face Off Win 15-7 1205.01 Sep 8th East New England Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
203 Rainbow Win 15-5 1229.93 Sep 8th East New England Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
93 Sunken Circus Loss 8-11 767.78 Sep 8th East New England Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
49 League of Shadows Loss 5-13 837.71 Sep 21st Northeast Club Mixed Regional Championship 2019
12 Snake Country Loss 6-13 1192.02 Sep 21st Northeast Club Mixed Regional Championship 2019
57 Metro North Loss 3-13 729.01 Sep 21st Northeast Club Mixed Regional Championship 2019
153 Buffalo Lake Effect Loss 9-10 734.03 Sep 22nd Northeast Club Mixed Regional Championship 2019
71 Chaotic Good Loss 8-15 669.24 Sep 22nd Northeast Club Mixed Regional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)