#19 The Chad Larson Experience (19-7)

avg: 1759.72  •  sd: 81.42  •  top 16/20: 32.4%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
288 Ope!** Win 13-1 671.19 Ignored Jun 29th Spirit of the Plains 2019
192 Jabba** Win 13-1 1308.36 Ignored Jun 29th Spirit of the Plains 2019
53 Pretty Boys and Handsome Girls Loss 10-11 1308.83 Jun 29th Spirit of the Plains 2019
65 7 Sins Win 9-7 1612.96 Jun 30th Spirit of the Plains 2019
53 Pretty Boys and Handsome Girls Loss 9-10 1308.83 Jun 30th Spirit of the Plains 2019
209 Pushovers-B** Win 12-4 1259.42 Ignored Jun 30th Spirit of the Plains 2019
109 Shakedown** Win 11-2 1741.92 Ignored Jun 30th Spirit of the Plains 2019
25 Alloy Win 13-5 2309.76 Jul 27th TCT Select Flight Invite East 2019
67 American Barbecue Win 13-10 1657.56 Jul 27th TCT Select Flight Invite East 2019
18 Columbus Cocktails Loss 10-13 1434.46 Jul 27th TCT Select Flight Invite East 2019
33 Hybrid Loss 10-13 1272.42 Jul 27th TCT Select Flight Invite East 2019
62 JLP Win 13-10 1679.15 Jul 28th TCT Select Flight Invite East 2019
27 Storm Loss 10-11 1528.05 Jul 28th TCT Select Flight Invite East 2019
43 Birdfruit Win 12-11 1642.79 Aug 17th Northwest Fruit Bowl 2019
60 Rubix Win 13-7 1922.44 Aug 17th Northwest Fruit Bowl 2019
3 Seattle Mixtape Loss 5-13 1483.72 Aug 17th Northwest Fruit Bowl 2019
24 MOONDOG Win 13-10 2038.58 Aug 17th Northwest Fruit Bowl 2019
26 Public Enemy Win 11-10 1823.29 Aug 18th Northwest Fruit Bowl 2019
60 Rubix Win 13-9 1783.47 Aug 18th Northwest Fruit Bowl 2019
3 Seattle Mixtape Loss 11-13 1854.88 Aug 18th Northwest Fruit Bowl 2019
93 PanIC Win 13-3 1784.69 Sep 7th West Plains Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
65 7 Sins Win 13-8 1829.78 Sep 7th West Plains Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
253 LudICRous** Win 13-4 1011.84 Ignored Sep 7th West Plains Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
254 Robotic Snakes** Win 13-0 1004.08 Ignored Sep 7th West Plains Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
22 Chalice Win 15-8 2281.94 Sep 8th West Plains Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
42 Woodwork Win 15-9 2045.29 Sep 8th West Plains Mixed Club Sectional Championship 2019
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)