#199 Rainbow (6-12)

avg: 554.13  •  sd: 76.93  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
103 Bench Loss 8-14 514.36 Jul 8th AntlerLock
140 Zero Strategy Loss 8-15 301.97 Jul 8th AntlerLock
247 Vintage Ultimate Club Win 14-7 642.35 Jul 8th AntlerLock
208 Quahogs Loss 6-12 -103.06 Jul 9th AntlerLock
219 Sugar Shack Win 13-6 989.3 Jul 9th AntlerLock
207 Buffalo Brain Freeze Loss 4-7 -19.77 Jul 9th AntlerLock
208 Quahogs Loss 3-5 57.68 Aug 5th Vacationland
52 The Buoy Association** Loss 4-15 783.54 Ignored Aug 5th Vacationland
166 Lobrid Loss 7-15 163.22 Aug 5th Vacationland
167 Sunken Circus Loss 10-13 434.07 Aug 6th Vacationland
74 Deadweight** Loss 4-15 608.47 Ignored Aug 6th Vacationland
222 Replay Win 12-9 697.79 Aug 6th Vacationland
208 Quahogs Win 14-7 1059.14 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed East New England Sectional Championship
48 Wild Card** Loss 4-13 841.83 Ignored Sep 9th 2023 Mixed East New England Sectional Championship
166 Lobrid Loss 8-13 267.06 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed East New England Sectional Championship
203 Beached Whales Win 11-10 658.01 Sep 9th 2023 Mixed East New England Sectional Championship
97 Scarecrow Loss 7-15 474.23 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed East New England Sectional Championship
166 Lobrid Win 15-6 1363.22 Sep 10th 2023 Mixed East New England Sectional Championship
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)